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The Iran Deal's Fatal Flaws After One Year: Emboldened Iran and Diminished American Deterrence

By Mark Dubowitz & Annie Fixler
As we mark the one-year anniversary of the announcement of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it is worth recalling why this deal is fatally flawed. The JCPOA provides Iran with a patient pathway to nuclear weapons capability by placing limited, temporary, and reversible constraints on Iran’s nuclear activities. Read here

Flying Above the Radar: Sanctions Evasion in the Iranian Aviation Sector

By Emanuele Ottolenghi, Annie Fixler & Yaya J. Fanusie 
With the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in January 2016, most international sanctions against Iran have been lifted. These include long-standing U.S. sanctions against Iran’s aviation sector. Read here

Don't Buy the Spin: Iran is Getting Economic Relief

By Mark Dubowitz & Annie Fixler | Co-authored by Rachel Ziemba
In recent weeks, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has been on an international “road show” to encourage large European banks to return to business with Iran and to help alleviate their concerns about the legal risks associated with engaging with a country still under U.S. sanctions for money laundering, terrorism, missile proliferation, and human rights abuses. Read here

Monumental Fight: Countering the Islamic State’s Antiquities Trafficking 

By Yaya J. Fanusie & Alexander Joffe
In the four and a half years since the Syrian civil war began, the terrorist group known as Islamic State (IS) has become one of the most destabilizing actors in the Middle East. Read here

Iran's mysterious Shrinking Reserves

By Mark Dubowitz & Annie Fixler | Co-authored by Rachel Ziemba 
A close review of the Iran nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has exposed a major divergence between estimates of the Iranian government’s assets held abroad. Read here

Improving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

By Mark Dubowitz & Annie Fixler | Foreword by Former Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-CT), Former Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN), Gen. Michael V. Hayden, former CIA and NSA director
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated between the P5+1 and Iran places term-limited constraints on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of many of the most impactful global sanctions. Read here

'SWIFT' Warfare: Power, Blowback, and Hardening American Defenses

By Mark Dubowitz & Annie Fixler | Foreword by Juan Zarate
Economic warfare is now the default instrument of coercive statecraft for confronting challenges to the international order. Read here

The Cyber Financial Wars on the Horizon

By Juan Zarate | Foreword by Stewart Baker
Cyberattacks and intrusions threaten U.S. private sector institutions on a daily basis. Read here

Iran’s Economic Resilience Against Snapback Sanctions Will Grow Over Time

Co-authored by Rachel Ziemba
As the P5+1 and Iran enter the final days to conclude a nuclear agreement, the details of the emerging deal are becoming clearer. Read here

Sanctions Evasion Series

A series focusing on the issue of sanctions evasion
These periodic memos will help legal compliance officers, government regulators, and financial intelligence unit personnel identify the methods and schemes that individual actors, organizations, and nation-states use to skirt economic sanctions and undermine their impact... For more info, click here

Turkish Medium-Term Economic Scenarios: The Costs of Policy Stasis

Co-authored by Maya Senussi and Rachel Ziemba
The majority of the analysis on Turkey’s general elections, to be held on June 7, has focused on the domestic political ramifications of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s bid to forge a presidential system that would enable him to consolidate power. But the outcome of this election will also be hugely consequential for the Turkish economy... Read here

Bordering on Terrorism

Turkey’s Syria Policy and the Rise of the Islamic State 
Southeastern Turkey has now become a jurisdiction for terrorism finance, weapons smuggling, illegal oil sales, and the flow of fighters to Syria. This pipeline serves the interest of several terrorist organizations, including Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) and the Islamic State (IS)... Read here

Qatar and Terror Finance - Part 1: Negligence

Part one in a three part series on Qatar's performance in the fight against terror finance
Qatar’s performance in the fight against terror finance tests the notion that it is a reliable friend and ally. Despite its tiny size, Doha is now being described by some U.S. officials as the region’s biggest source of private donations to radical groups in Syria and Iraq. Read here

The Case for Deadline-Triggered Sanctions on Iran

The largest obstacle to a deal right now, after Iranian intransigence, is the Obama administration’s assumption that it has sufficient leverage to conclude an acceptable final deal.
To date, the Iranian government remains unwilling to come into compliance with its international obligations. At the same time, as the Obama administration has lowered its nuclear demands, U.S. negotiating leverage has diminished. Read here

Iran’s Economy Will Slow But Continue To Grow Under Cheaper Oil and Current Sanctions

Co-authored by Jennifer Hsieh and Rachel Ziemba
Iran has escaped from the severe recession that threatened its economy in 2012 and early 2013. As previous Roubini Global Economics (RGE) and Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) reports have assessed, Tehran has used the sanctions relief from the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) interim agreement, reached in November 2013, and the resulting improvement in market sentiment to stabilize its economy and build up economic resilience against future sanctions pressure. Read here