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Analysis & Commentary - Tony Badran

Tony Badran's Latest Articles

31st December 2012 – NOW Lebanon

Diplomatic Theater

Tony Badran

If you’ve been following Syria news over the past week, you’d be forgiven for thinking that feverish, Moscow-centered diplomatic activity was on the cusp of producing an agreement for a political... more...

20th December 2012 – NOW Lebanon

A Historic Settlement?

Tony Badran

On Monday, the Hezbollah-aligned al-Akhbar published an interview with Syria’s Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa entitled “Decisive military victory is an illusion. The solution is a historic settlement.” more...

14th December 2012 – NOW Lebanon

Assad’s Chemical Card

Tony Badran

Last week, president Obama issued another warning to Syria’s embattled dictator against making the “tragic mistake” of using chemical weapons (CW). There remain a number of real scenarios in which... more...

22nd November 2012 – NOW Lebanon

Hamas’ Escalation Calculation

Tony Badran

Hamas’ decision to escalate rocket attacks on Israel leading up to the latest conflagration was deliberate. One question remains largely unanswered: What was Hamas’ calculation behind this escalation? more...

21st November 2012 – The Morningside Post

Intervention in Syria

Tony Badran

In the run up to the elections, America’s Middle East allies were convinced that President Obama was too consumed with domestic politics to pursue a more muscular approach to Syria. more...

19th November 2012 – The Jerusalem Post

Ground to a Halt

Tony Badran

It’s been twenty months since the Syrian people rose up against the regime of Bashar Assad. During this time, large swathes of land in northwestern Syria have fallen out of government control. more...

15th November 2012 – NOW Lebanon

Sitting Out the Syria Game

Tony Badran

In the run-up to the US presidential election, Washington’s regional allies were convinced that the Obama administration’s lack of a Syria policy was due to the US president’s preoccupation with securing... more...

1st November 2012 – NOW Lebanon

Obama Runs From Iran

Tony Badran

The Iranian challenge to US interests and allies is the most pressing strategic issue for Washington in the Middle East. With the US election less than a week away, now is as good a time as any to look... more...

25th October 2012 – NOW Lebanon

Who Killed Wissam al-Hassan?

Tony Badran

Who killed Brigadier General Wissam al-Hassan? Following the assassination last Friday, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt blamed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. However, Jumblatt... more...

18th October 2012 – NOW Lebanon

Helping to Hurt

Tony Badran

Over the last two weeks, the Syrian regime has directed mortar and artillery fire at Turkish villages. The US ambassador to Turkey, Francis Ricciardone, might have stated... more...

9th October 2012 – NOW Lebanon

What’s Happening in Qardaha?

Tony Badran

Last week, Mohammed Assad, a cousin of President Bashar al-Assad, was shot and critically wounded in Qardaha, hometown of the Assads in the coastal mountains of Syria. For a... more...

20th September 2012 – NOW Lebanon

Egypt’s Veiled Islamic Rivalry

Tony Badran

The Obama administration is insisting that the assault on the US Embassy in Egypt, and the subsequent riots and attacks elsewhere in the Middle East, were “absolutely” about an obscure... more...

30th August 2012 – NOW Lebanon

Bashar’s Cult of Personality

Tony Badran

Last week, the daily Al-Joumhouria published the transcripts of the surveillance tapes in the case of former minister Michel Samaha, who was recently arrested and charged for plotting a campaign... more...

16th August 2012 – NOW Lebanon

Iranian Islands of Influence

Tony Badran

At a Pentagon news conference on Tuesday, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said that Iran is building and training a militia to buttress the Assad regime in Syria. more...

9th August 2012 – NOW Lebanon

Washington’s Self-Defeating Policy

Tony Badran

In a steady stream of leaks and public statements in recent days, a number of US officials have offered a window into the Obama administration’s current thinking on Syria. more...

3rd August 2012 – NOW Lebanon

The Syrian Conflict’s New Phase

Tony Badran

It has become apparent that the areas held by Syrian president Bashar Assad’s forces are rapidly shrinking. As Assad concentrates his forces in Damascus and Aleppo, he is ceding territory elsewhere. more...

27th July 2012 – Foreign Policy


Tony Badran

How long will President Bashar al-Assad remain in Damascus? His regime appears to be reeling: A bombing last week claimed the lives of his brother-in-law and three other senior figures of his regime. more...

6th July 2012 – The Weekly Standard

Strategic Geography and the End of Assad

Tony Badran

The latest military developments in Syria are now generally understood as ushering in a new phase in the Syrian conflict. What’s less observed is that the minority Alawite regime’s mass killings of Sunnis and the intense fighting... more...

14th June 2012 – NOW Lebanon

Defensive Propaganda

Tony Badran

Of all the uprisings of the “Arab Spring,” the Syrian revolt has been the one arena where pro-regime information warfare has been a central element in the ongoing conflict. more...

7th June 2012 – NOW Lebanon

Assad’s Sectarian Strategy

Tony Badran

While the massacre of women and children in Houla last month has been rightly denounced by outsiders as a horrific act of brutality, few fully appreciate the cold-blooded calculus of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad... more...