January 4, 2012 | Quote
2012: It Could be a Year of Middle East Uncertainty
In addition, Jonathan Schanzer, vice president of research for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, agreed that the “Iranian nuclear crisis will be the number one security concern of 2012.”
While the past year brought renewed tension on the Iranian front, regional experts believe that there will be a continuation of the unrest and uncertainty in other areas of the region, particularly in Egypt, Syria and even the Palestinian territories.
“I think every one of these challenges will continue in some way,” said Schanzer. “We might even see some new ones emerging out of the region.” …
“Obviously, the leadership issue with the [Palestinian Authority] will linger in 2012, due to the unresolved unity issues between Hamas and Fatah,” Schanzer said. “Leadership issues will continue to plague the P.A. both in terms of legitimacy and an ongoing power struggle.” …
Schanzer predicted there would be further challenges in Egypt, particularly with the political system, but stated that a strong constitution was vital for providing the Egyptians with the democratic tools to avoid extremist elements in the future.
“The key to this is a strong constitution,” Schanzer said. “If the constitution is strong enough to ensure a clean departure of the Islamists after they are voted out in the next cycle, then Egypt could come to a democratic government that embraces secular ideas.”
While Egypt works towards a viable government, Syria will remain on the radar for the United States in the coming year. Since last spring, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad continues to cling to power as he uses his military to kill innocent civilians and members of the anti-Assad demonstration movement.
“We would hope that Syria falls in 2012. If it doesn't, then we see an unsustainable amount of tension in that country that will invite outside actors to meddle more and create potentially major problems,” said Schanzer.