A Nifty Conceit: the EU, Hezbollah, and Lebanon

The Hezbollah bus bombing in Bulgaria as well as their foiled operation in Cyprus have put Europe in an uncomfortable position, as pressure increases on the EU to designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. The plot in Cyprus is especially embarrassing, as the Hezbollah operative there was arrested and is being publicly tried, making it harder for EU officials to deny evidence laid out in the open. Still, it is painfully obvious that Europe would much prefer this whole Hezbollah inconvenience go away. In resisting calls to designate the Shiite group, the Europeans have hid behind a nifty conceit: designating Hezbollah could destabilize Lebanon.

Espousing such a seemingly altruistic position is rather convenient. It affords the Europeans the semblance of judicious sagacity, enabling them to skirt the issue altogether, regardless of the evidence. Take for instance what Gilles de Kerchove, the EU’s Counterterrorism Coordinator, had to say about the matter. While strong evidence is a prerequisite for designating the group, Kechrove opined, there’s also a “political assessment.” The EU counterterrorism official then added, “for Hezbollah, you might ask, given the situation in Lebanon, which is a highly fragile, highly fragmented country, is listing it going to help you achieve what you want?”

The proposition that targeting Hezbollah would negatively impact Lebanon presupposes that the group currently contributes to stability. Such a view requires quite the suspension of disbelief. In reality, Hezbollah has thoroughly subverted the country and its citizens in virtually every aspect. Left unmolested, Hezbollah not only undermines Lebanon's security, institutions, and political system, but is also set track to compromise its foreign relations, ruin its financial system, and destroy whatever remains of its social cohesion.

The most obvious threat has been and continues to be Hezbollah’s illegal arsenal. As I have written in recent weeks, Hezbollah’s effort to transport into Lebanon the strategic weapons it had stored in Syria is placing the country in tremendous danger. What makes the peril inescapable is the fact that Hezbollah has turned entire population centers into military sites. It has embedded its military infrastructure inside towns and villages all throughout the country. The Israelis have already struck one such convoy in Syria. However, eventually Hezbollah may succeed in bringing another convoy across the border. This will surely prompt another Israeli strike, which in turn is sure to result in significant collateral damage.

In his February 16 address, Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah declared that any such Israeli strike inside Lebanon would be met with retaliation against Israel’s infrastructure. Nasrallah’s threats, whether or not they’re to be taken seriously, are unlikely to alter Israel’s calculations regarding the smuggling of strategic weapons. Given that Hezbollah will surely attempt to bring in more of these weapons systems stored in Syria, an Israeli strike in Lebanon is, in all likelihood, a matter of time.

Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria has had other deleterious effects on Lebanon and its fragile social fabric. By joining the war on the side of the Assad regime, Hezbollah is also acting as the regime’s flank in Lebanon. As such, it has taken action against Lebanese Sunnis who are assisting the Syrian opposition. Whenever the Shiite group could not do so itself, it has relied on its allies in the military and security apparatuses to perform a task on its behalf, as we witnessed in the Arsal incident several weeks ago.

The damage has been, therefore, double. On the one hand, Hezbollah further exacerbated Sunni-Shiite tensions. Already it had brought those communal relations to the brink in May 2008, when it assaulted Sunni neighborhoods of Beirut (and the Druze Shouf Mountains), killing dozens. On the other hand, it pitted the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) against the Sunni community, which has come to view the Party of God’s relationship with the LAF with great suspicion.

In addition, not only does Hezbollah provide cover to a host of criminal activities in its areas of influence – keeping them beyond the reach of the law – but also, the Party of God stands accused in the murder of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Four of its commanders and operatives have been named as suspects, but, naturally, the LAF would never consider moving in to apprehend them. Perhaps the EU would also prefer to abort justice and gloss over political assassination in order to avoid action that would ‘destabilize’ the country.

It’s bad enough that suspicions over Hezbollah’s role in other political murders and assassination attempts have eaten at the core of communal coexistence and the political system altogether. But the Party of God’s penetration of state institutions has also implicated the Lebanese state in Hezbollah’s activities, both in Lebanon and abroad.

Take for instance Hezbollah’s control over General Security. That apparatus is responsible for ports of entry as well as for the issue of travel documents. In recent years, as Hezbollah cells have been uncovered abroad, it came to light that many of its operatives held false identification papers that were nevertheless issued by the government. The case of Sami Shehab, who was arrested in Egypt in 2009, is but one example. Shehab was in Egypt on an officially issued false passport.  Such activities abroad have not only damaged Lebanon’s diplomatic relations, but have also hurt Lebanese expatriates, especially those working in the Gulf Arab states. Most recently, the uncovering of Hezbollah cells in the United Arab Emirates have led to the deportation of Lebanese resident workers in that country.

This is hardly the worst economic calamity Hezbollah has brought on Lebanon. The Party of God’s vast, global, criminal, enterprise has infected the backbone of the Lebanese economy: the banking sector. The case of the Lebanese Canadian Bank is one ominous example. And while it may have been papered over, the potential damage to Lebanese banks, as a result of Hezbollah (and Iranian) money-laundering operations is simply devastating. The group’s terrorist activities in Bulgaria and Cyprus (with whom Lebanon has critical energy interests) are bad enough. But its involvement in the drug trade and laundering of the proceeds through the banking sector and exchange houses is earning Lebanon the unenviable title of a “veritable money laundering machine,” as illicit finance expert David Asher put it. Asher also notes that Hezbollah’s money laundering has infiltrated the real estate sector just as much as it has the banking sector. Designating Hezbollah, and purging it from the Lebanese financial system, may be the only way to salvage the critical banking sector down the road.

The above is but a quick sample of how Hezbollah has corroded Lebanon’s security, economy, society, politics and state institutions. There is much more, including the mutilation of the political system by force of arms. The bottom line is that the EU rationale for not designating Hezbollah is not only absurd; it is detrimental to Lebanon’s long-term prospects. Lebanon may not in the end survive the metastasis of Hezbollah. But Europe’s refusal to take action against the Party of God will only help ensure Lebanon’s demise.

Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets @AcrossTheBay.