Senior Fellow
Al-Qaeda’s Center of Gravity ‘Shifting’ from Pakistan to Yemen
As al-Qaeda marks its 25th anniversary this month, analysts say the recent security threat in Yemen shows the organization’s center of gravity is shifting away from its historic base in Pakistan.
U.S. President Barack Obama has cautioned that affiliates such as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a unit of the extremist group that effectively controls parts of Yemen, still pose a threat despite successful efforts to disrupt the organization’s core leadership.
His warning came after the United States closed 19 diplomatic missions in the Middle East and Africa last week after reported intelligence intercepts from al-Qaeda suggested an attack was imminent.
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The recent revelation of an ambitious plot in Yemen to seize control of two cities, as well as an oil export terminal, showed AQAP to be highly motivated, and Wuhayshi is believed to have been promoted to second in command of the global organization behind Zawahiri.
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, in Washington, said Wuhayshi’s promotion indicated al-Qaeda was broadening the ‘core’ leadership as AQAP grew in expertise.
“When we talk about al-Qaeda core there’s no reason it can only exist in Afghanistan-Pakistan -- Wuhayshi being made the general manager, that very clearly makes him part of the core,” Gartenstein-Ross told AFP.
“We see a geographic shift towards Yemen but that’s not necessarily a shift to AQAP and away from the core -- the way I see it, the core is expanding.”
al-Qaeda was established when the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan, to unite disparate groups of fighters who had come to battle the occupation, with the aim of taking the jihad to a bigger, more global scale, attacking targets around the world.
But al-Qaeda franchises across the Middle East and North Africa have been increasingly active in recent years and Yemen’s geographical location makes it a more convenient base than Pakistan or Afghanistan for communicating with these groups, Gartenstein-Ross noted.