Khamenei’s Speech Ups the Nuclear Ante

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei set new “red lines” to nuclear negotiations on Tuesday, undercutting many of the principles his representatives had already reached with international negotiators. Khamenei’s latest remarks – broadcast live on state television – cast serious doubt on the feasibility of reaching a nuclear agreement that meets Western governments’ most basic requirements.

“Annulling sanctions must not be conditioned on Iran acting upon its commitments,” Khamenei said, reading from a prepared speech rather than his usual practice of reciting from memory. It was not the first time the supreme leader has called for immediate sanctions relief upon signing a deal, but never has he so brazenly dismissed the importance of Tehran honoring its obligations under one. Negotiators, he added, “should not say: ‘You act upon your commitments, let the Agency [IAEA] vouch for that before the sanctions annulled. We would absolutely not accept such a thing … we do not trust the Agency.”

“Freezing Iran’s research and development for a long time, like 10 years or 12 years, is unacceptable,” Khamenei continued. He concluded by rejecting any “non-standard” inspections, or inspectors’ “interrogation” of scientists – an implicit rejection of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty’s Additional Protocol, a set of enhanced inspection standards that some 100 nations follow. And he once again reiterated his rejection of the inspection of military sites – a critical requirement for accounting for the possible military dimensions of Tehran’s past nuclear program. 

Khamenei’s address was interrupted by the assembled audience of Iranian officials, who with raised fists chanted their usual mantra: “God is great! Khamenei is the leader! Death to the opponent of the guardian jurist [supreme leader]! Death to America! Death to England! Death to the hypocrites and the infidels! Death to Israel!”

Taken together, the supreme leader’s statements may represent an attempt to extract last-minute concessions from negotiators, or a desire to tacitly accept the deal while mollifying hardliners and evading political responsibility for a deal. Alternatively, the statements may reflect his genuine opposition to a negotiated solution.

Regardless, with less than a week left to the June 30^th deadline for an agreement, Khamenei appears determined to demonstrate that he, and not the West, call the shots. His latest incendiary remarks underscore the yawning gap still remaining between negotiators and the Islamic Republic, and bode ill for the prospect of reaching a comprehensive nuclear agreement that the West can get behind.

Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @Alfoneh