August 28, 2015 | Policy Brief

Interviewing Scientists is Key to Iran’s PMD

August 28, 2015 | Policy Brief

Interviewing Scientists is Key to Iran’s PMD

A fatal flaw of last month’s Iran nuclear deal is its failure to account for possible military dimensions (PMD) of Tehran’s previous nuclear work. That failure could be rectified, at least in part, by demanding that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) be allowed to interview Iran’s nuclear scientists and military officers involved in suspected weaponization research. The Islamic Republic’s insistence that such interviews are off the table leaves scant reason to believe the IAEA will be able to verify with high confidence Iran’s assurances that its nuclear ambitions remain exclusively peaceful.

In eight years, EU, U.S., and United Nations sanctions will be lifted against senior Iranian nuclear scientists and officials designated for illicit proliferation activities or development of nuclear-weapons delivery systems: Ali Reza Khanchi, Ali Hajinia Leilabadi, Mohammad Qannadi, Abbas Rashidi, Javad Karimi Sabet, and Fereydoon Abbasi.

Delisted scientists also include the “Robert Oppenheimer” of the Iranian nuclear program, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officer Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Western officials suspect that Fakhrizadeh led a secret program to develop technology for Iran’s nuclear weapons program until 2003 or possibly later. For the past five years – both before and after the deal – Iran has refused to allow him to speak to authorities.

With the unveiling of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in July, U.S. officials now maintain that intelligence gathering has given them “absolute knowledge” of past nuclear weapons activities, rendering Tehran’s disclosure unnecessary. That claim, however, ignores the long list of U.S. and Western failures to detect nuclear breakout of covert weapons programs.

Determining the true extent of Iran’s suspected weapons program should be a core component of the nuclear deal with Iran. That will remain impossible until Tehran allows access to the very individuals who oversaw it. Remarkably, the international community appears prepared to endure Iran’s obstinacy. This is a mistake. Significant sanctions relief and economic normalization without resolving the PMD issue through scientist interviews is an unforced error that could come back to haunt the world powers that negotiated this deal.   

Amir Toumaj is an Iran Research Analyst at Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @AmirToumaj

Issues:

Iran