Analysis: Al-Qaida Unlikely to Force Hezbollah Out of Syria

Could the continued onslaught by al-Qaida-linked jihadists force Hezbollah to withdraw its forces from the Syrian war? Probably not.

Such a withdrawal would seemingly allow the organization to focus on defending itself in Lebanon, but the bombings targeting it and Iran are strongly connected to the sectarian struggle in Syria.

Sunni jihadist groups with a regional presence and connections to the global jihadist network are targeting Hezbollah and Iranian locations, gathering Muslim recruits from all over the world.

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“I don’t think it will affect Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria,” Tony Badran, a columnist for the Beirut-based website NOW Lebanon and a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The Jerusalem Post in an interview on Wednesday.

The attack comes right after a major campaign by Hezbollah – with reported indirect US intelligence help – to catch the masterminds of bombings that have targeted Iranian and Hezbollah targets, he said.

In recent months, Lebanese intelligence services have arrested various figures linked to the group, including Naim Abbas, a suspected commander in the Abdullah Azzam Brigades.

Hezbollah expected the new cabinet to give it more freedom to go after its Sunni enemies. The new government serves as a cover for Lebanese security operations in certain Sunni areas, Badran added.

Hezbollah’s propaganda narrative states that car bombs targeting them originate in Yabrud, a Syrian rebel stronghold just north of Damascus and near the Lebanese border, in an attempt to justify its offensive there.

A fierce battle is being fought in Yabrud, with songs to motivate Hezbollah’s supporters as they continue to bury its fighters, noted Badran.

Asked why the US would indirectly aid Hezbollah by giving Lebanese forces intelligence about Abdullah Azzam members, Badran responded that the US wants a Saudi-Iranian rapprochement in the region, though the Saudis are unlikely to agree to it under the current conditions.

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