Analysis: Does terrorism work?

A new study by Max Abrahms and Matthew Gottfried titled “Does Terrorism Pay? An Empirical Analysis” argues that it does not because government compliance is usually not forthcoming.

An interesting finding is that governments are more likely to deal with terrorists in hostage situations when the demands are the release of prisoners or money, as opposed to political demands.

When terrorists kill civilians or captives, it “significantly lowers the likelihood of bargaining success,” they state.

…

Jonathan Schanzer, vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Post that this excellent study contributes to an important debate, but offers a few caveats.

“The Gilad Schalit deal was an example where terrorism did pay. His kidnapping led to Israel’s release of an unprecedented number of prisoners,” said Schanzer.

“In places like North Africa and Yemen, al-Qaida affiliate groups have also successfully deployed the kidnap- and-ransom model to refill their coffers. European nations have been willing time and again to acquiesce to the demands of these groups,” he said.

Read the full article here.