Are Hamas and Egypt Moving towards Conflict?
25th May 2013
Despite Egypt’s consistent role as a peace broker between the various Palestinian factions, and the mediator for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, the relationship between Cairo and Gaza may well be on the verge of a violent eruption. The first serious signs of tension appeared following a recent report in the state-owned Egyptian daily Al-Ahram, which was picked up by other Western news agencies, which suggests that Hamas is preparing an attack on the Egyptian border using mortars, explosives and live ammunitions against Egyptian soldiers. Rumors of a potential attack come as Hamas, using the suffering of Palestinian civilians as a pretext, has launched a media, political, and religious campaign against the Egyptian Government (EG) for its lack of unconditional support. The reported attacks would be another mechanism through which Hamas could pressure Cairo to alter its position regarding the Gaza border. However, such an attack would, in fact, run counter to Hamas’ objective of generating support and opening up the border.
Rising Tensions
The relationship between Hamas and the EG, while not always easy, has generally been characterized by cool, yet friendly relations. Egyptian intelligence officials have frequently worked with Hamas to bridge the gap between the various Palestinian factions, and Hamas officials have generally been welcome in Cairo for meetings related to the intra-Palestinian disagreements. But after Hamas’s coup in June 2007, the EG became more vocal in its criticism towards of the Islamist group, while clearly supporting Fatah in the dispute. At the same time, Egypt has maintained open lines of communication with Hamas. However, the EG’s reluctance to re-open the Rafah border crossing has caused the relationship to deteriorate to the point that Egypt now suspects Hamas might resort to violence.
Reports of the potential attack come amidst a political and religious campaign to vilify the EG and justify the act of aggression. Over the past few months, Hamas has been using symbolic politics and media propaganda to rally Arab support for its cause. A few weeks ago, several Hamas officials and sympathizers held a three-day sit-in at the Rafah border crossing in an attempt to put pressure on the EG to open the border. Subsequently, Hamas conducted a protest including the building of a “Graveyard of Arab Silence” to symbolize the Arab World’s neglect for the situation in Gaza. In addition, Hamas politicians consistently blame Egypt for their sufferings on Arab media outlets such as al-Jazeera. These campaigns are clearly meant to win the media war against the EG. However, the report suggests that Hamas may have taken it one step further. According to the article in Al-Ahram, Hamas issued a fatwa allowing its militants to kill Egyptian soldiers, thereby providing theological cover for the attack. Hamas has denied that such a fatwa was ever issued.
The Plan of Attack
According to the report in Al-Ahram the plan to take over the Gaza-Egypt border is comprised of three steps. First, Hamas militants would launch mortar attacks against Egyptian positions on the borders. The mortar fire would be followed up with direct engagement of Egyptian soldiers, hence the fatwa justifying the killing of Egyptian soldiers. Lastly, Hamas militants would use tunnels to infiltrate Egyptian territory and to position its forces behind Egyptian positions. At that point, explosives placed in some tunnels would be detonated underneath Egyptian positions and parts of the wall. It is believed that Hamas has already started laying explosives along the border. Once the wall is breached, Hamas intends to use the flow of civilians into Egypt as cover from Egyptian fire.
As a result of these threats, Egypt has tightened security on its border with Gaza. Two weeks ago, Egyptian security forces discovered five new tunnels. Two were used for smuggling fuel while the remaining three were for the smuggling of goods. While the EG is often criticized by Israel and the United States for not doing enough to crack down on the tunnels, they seem to be stepping up their enforcement now that their border security is at risk and that Hamas’ rule in Gaza is unchecked.
The Fifth Column
To compliment the military action on the border, Hamas is also coordinating with the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in Egypt to generate internal pressure on the EG. The MB has consistently been Hamas’ strongest ally inside, a relationship that dates back to Hamas’s founding, and has demonstrated unconditional support for their actions. According to Al-Ahram, the MB would conduct a campaign inside Egypt to embarrass the government and prevent it from countering Hamas’s attack on the borders. The campaign would include a series of rallies, demonstrations, and conferences in solidarity with the suffering of Gazans. The ideal scenario for Hamas and the MB is one where the Egyptian border is left unchecked and weapons and ammunition can be smuggled freely into Gaza. A more liberal border policy would also facilitate easier and stronger communication between Hamas and its mentor organization the Egyptian MB.
In the face of this growing relationship, the EG has taken steps to drive a wedge between the two organizations. Last month, Egyptian authorities arrested what was defined as a Hamas/MB cell that was developing remote-control planes that could carry explosives. These small aircrafts were intended to be launched from Gaza to attack Southern Israel. The accusation is significant as it marks the first occasion that the EG has directly connected the MB to terrorist activity. The mere implication of direct involvement in terrorist activity was likely done to encourage the MB to reconsider its relationship with Hamas, while also assisting the general crackdown on the group.
Understanding the Greater Context
Hamas strongly denies these allegations and claims that it has no plan to attack the Egyptian borders. Though Hamas has cautioned of another breach of the borders, it maintains that it was merely warning the EG that the deteriorating conditions could force the civilian population to try and break the siege by crossing into Egypt – as it did last year. Moreover, Hamas has argued that the alleged plot has been concocted by the EG to cover for killing Palestinians trying to cross into Egypt. The idea that the Al-Ahram report is fabricated is not wholly unrealistic. Nevertheless, the fact that EG has already sent additional troops to the Northern Sinai town of El-Arish and deployed some of them along dirt roads leading to the Gaza border, indicates that they do perceive Hamas to be a real threat.
The threat, however, is not merely limited to the border area, but also extends to a regional perspective. The Al-Ahram report notes that the timing of the attack is pending the approval of “some Arab and Middle Eastern countries.” The countries are likely the two main sponsors of Hamas: Syria and Iran. Both countries have difficult relations with Egypt and both would welcome a situation where they could gain some leverage over Egypt. Indeed, Egypt is the only Arab state to not restore diplomatic relations with Iran following the fall of the Shah’s regime in 1979. The EG has always expressed its concern for Iran’s regional ambitions. In Lebanon, the EG has been supporting the Siniora government against Syria and Iran’s ally the Hizbollah. Thus, for Egypt, a Hamas attack could have much larger implications.
The End of the Cairo/Gaza “Detente”?
This latest escalation is a clear indication that both sides have lost trust in one another. The EG wrongly thought that it could use the border crisis to influence Hamas, whereas Hamas felt it could open the borders without any concessions. However, Hamas’ hard-line stance has had the opposite effect. In response, the EG has started to raise the flag of nationalism and national security to justify action against any Hamas affiliate or Palestinian who tries to cross illegally into Egypt: a clear hardening of their position. Any escalation will only increase the Hamas’ isolation, and likely the suffering of Gazans.
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