The US Just Sent a Major Signal About How It Views Iranian Legitimacy in the Middle East

Iran has been invited for the first time to participate in peace talks on Syria, in a move that recognizes Tehran as a legitimate stakeholder in the future of a country well into its fifth year of civil war. 

Russian officials reportedly extended the invitation, which Iran accepted Tuesday, after meeting with the US, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey last week to discuss diplomatic solutions to the conflict. Officials in Washington have insisted the move was a “genuine multilateral invitation.” 

But some experts are wary that the invitation represents a concession to Iran's quest for regional hegemony and legitimizes its militant proxy, Hezbollah, by extension.

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“By allowing Iran to participate in these talks, the US is essentially saying that Iran has a legitimate stake in Syria,” Tony Badran, a researcher at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told Business Insider. “But Iran's only stake in Syria is maintaining its bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

That Iran has been invited to the talks now, with no objections, reflects a broader shift in how the US and its partners have come to perceive Assad's future — a shift that has been spearheaded, Badran said, by President Barack Obama.

“I don't see Iran's invitation to the talks as a change in the administration's policy — rather, it is in line with Obama's long-held perception of Syria as an Iranian sphere of influence, and his desire to legitimize Iran as a regional interlocutor of the US,” Badran said.

“Indeed, that was the whole point of the Iran deal — to establish a broader regional partnership with the Iranians. Giving Zarif a seat at the table is just the logical continuation of that policy.”

The hard part of getting Iran to the table, Badran noted, has been dragging in the naysayers like Saudi Arabia — which has a fierce regional rivalry with Iran dating back to 1979 — and Turkey, which has long been one of the Assad regime's staunchest opponents.

“Obama's vision has always been based on integrating rather than keeping out, and he has never wanted to be on a war footing,” Badran said. “So he's leveraging the Russian intervention to get the Saudis and Turks to agree to Iran's involvement, and thereby accept a political framework that — at least temporarily — includes Assad.”

“Diplomatically, Iran's involvement has cornered the few remaining backers of the Syrian revolution,” Badran added.

“Iran said 'give us more' at every turn when the nuclear deal was being negotiated,” Badran said. “So they may end up playing the same game at the Syria talks — especially since Washington has stated openly that it wants to avoid a regime collapse in Syria.”

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