Why Lebanon Could Be the Next Middle East Hot Spot

Saudi Arabia has made a gamble in its regional proxy war with longtime foe Iran by retreating from Lebanon, an arena where the two have long competed for influence.

It may be a risky bet.

The kingdom has long vied with Iran for dominance in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, but one place their hostilities had not spilled onto a battlefield was Lebanon. That country, despite hosting millions of Syrian refugees, has been relatively stable compared to neighboring nations that are engulfed in chaos. But Saudi Arabia has decided it will no longer tolerate the growing influence of the terror group Hezbollah inside Lebanon and has chosen to withdraw its patronage.

The seemingly sudden action is the latest division between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, traditional allies whose relationship has been strained by a series of regional crises and concern among the Saudis that the U.S. is drawing closer to Tehran. With its intensified assertiveness toward Iran, some fear Riyadh is in danger of destabilizing fragile Lebanon in a region that cannot afford another outright armed conflict.

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Tony Badran, research fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says new Saudi leadership, which came into office last year after the death of King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, has made it clear it is unwilling to put up with the Hezbollah element inside Lebanon. The group's influence is partially responsible for the country's political deadlock that has prevented it from electing a president since the last president's term ended in May 2014. King Salman and his 30-year-old son, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is defense minister, have shown increasing impatience at the state of play in the region. The prince has accumulated more power than any prince before him, a concern to U.S. officials who have called him “rash” and “impulsive.”

Decisions like the one that led to the execution of the Shiite cleric in January have been seen as unnecessarily provocative by the international community. Badran suggests the action was also indicative of Saudi Arabia's desire to draw more attention to Shiite terrorist activity when much of the focus falls on Sunni groups.

“The new administration in Saudi Arabia, the new king and the new staff they have, are very, very serious about this targeting or pushing back against Iranian expansionism,” Badran says. “They are also very serious about making sure that the tag of terrorism is not only used exclusively toward the usual groups, like al-Qaida or [the Islamic State group].”

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