Iran will cheat and get away with it

President Obama’s deal with Iran profoundly misjudged the revolutionary nature of the clerical regime in Tehran.

Iran’s rulers have demonstrated over the last two decades an unwavering tenacity to develop a nuclear weapons device. Put simply, the agreement reached on Tuesday merely manages the mullahs’ drive to make their nation into a nuclear-armed power.

While the deal will restrict Iran’s nuclear infrastructure for 10 years, in 2025, Tehran’s atomic scientists can dash to a deliverable bomb.

Obama conceded prior to the agreement that “in Year 13, 14, 15 . . . the breakout times [for a nuclear weapon] would have shrunk almost down to zero.” Indeed, the agreement’s details show that Iran’s pathway to a bomb was accelerated even below Obama’s calculus.

WHAT'S REALLY WRONG WITH THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

And what if Iran cheats during the life of the agreement, as anyone with knowledge of recent history should expect? Since the 2013 interim agreement was reached with Iran to slow down its program, Tehran violated the caps on its sale of crude oil, as well as tested advanced centrifuges to enrich uranium for a weapon.

Indeed, a German intelligence source told me that Iran continued to procure illicit nuclear and ballistic missile technology into June.

“You would think that with the negotiations, [Iranian] activities would drop,” said the source, adding that “Despite the talks to end Iran’s program, Iran did not make an about turn.” The findings of Iran’s double-dealing are contained in Germany’s June domestic intelligence agency report.

To prevent similar cheating now, the deal contains a “snap-back” sanctions provision. A Joint Commission of the world powers — the U.S., the European Union, France, Germany, the UK, Russia and China — are tasked with adjudicating violations.

Yet that bureaucratic mechanism, which will take weeks, will surely be too cumbersome to tackle Iran’s deceptive practices. Making it even less likely, it defies logic that European countries will report violations after they revive their multi-billion trade relations with Iran.

FIE, FEARMONGERS; THIS IS A GOOD DEAL

Making matters worse, Obama abandoned a key method of verifying Iranian nuclear and military facilities during the deal. His administration promised “anywhere, anytime” access, but the agreement codified a startling delay period. Iran effectively has up to 24 days to hide any illegal operations before international inspectors can access a site. It will therefore be a herculean task for inspectors to detect illicit work, largely because the Islamic Republic has long developed an expertise in sanctions evasion activity.

All of this helps to explain that the dismantling of 10 years of sophisticated sanctions architecture may have been for naught.

With the termination of economic sanctions at the front-end of the deal, Iran will soon obtain over $100 billion. The cash infusion will therefore enable the leading state sponsor of terrorism to spread its revolutionary ideology and violence throughout the Middle East.

This is not some academic threat. U.S military personnel and American allies — Israel, Egypt, Jordan, the Gulf monarchies — face serious risks from Iranian jingoism. Iran’s militias have been responsible for the deaths of as many as 1,000 American soldiers since 2003 in Iraq.

Disturbingly, the deal delisted sanctions on Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Iran’s Quds Force, who oversaw the targeted killings of Americans in Iraq. He is now advancing Syrian dictator Bashar Assad’s war against Syrian civilians and Sunnis in Iraq. Hence the nuclear agreement ensures a deadly sectarian war between Shiite Iran and the Sunni countries of the Islamic heartland.

Last, the agreement gives Iran a shot in the arm for its conventional weapons program. While the deal was supposed to focus exclusively on Iran’s nuclear program, Obama agreed to lift the UN embargo on conventional weapons sales within five years. The missile-sale sanction will expire in eight years.

The elimination of the UN ban is a win for Vladimir Putin’s military-industrial complex. The losers are Syrians and U.S. allies in the region.

The only obstacle separating a capitulation to Iran is Congress. If and only if the U.S. Congress can attain a veto-proof majority and stop the deal, the international community will avoid a nuclear-armed terrorist regime.