Nuclear Deal Has No Effective Mechanism to Prevent Iranian Cheating

Iran has a long history of violating international law, a behavior which the nuclear deal it negotiated with the P5+1 powers doesn’t have an effective mechanism to change, Benny Weinthal, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, wrote in an op-ed published Wednesday in The New York Daily News. After noting that Iran has continued cheating and evading sanctions even as negotiations were ongoing, Weinthal wrote:

“To prevent similar cheating now, the deal contains a “snap-back” sanctions provision. A Joint Commission of the world powers — the U.S., the European Union, France, Germany, the UK, Russia and China — are tasked with adjudicating violations. Yet that bureaucratic mechanism, which will take weeks, will surely be too cumbersome to tackle Iran’s deceptive practices. Making it even less likely, it defies logic that European countries will report violations after they revive their multi-billion trade relations with Iran. Making matters worse, Obama abandoned a key method of verifying Iranian nuclear and military facilities during the deal. His administration promised “anywhere, anytime” access, but the agreement codified a startling delay period. Iran effectively has up to 24 days to hide any illegal operations before international inspectors can access a site. It will therefore be a herculean task for inspectors to detect illicit work, largely because the Islamic Republic has long developed an expertise in sanctions evasion activity.”

According to Weinthal, with no effective mechanism in place to enforce Iranian compliance, “the dismantling of 10 years of sophisticated sanctions architecture may have been for naught.” The final deal that was announced yesterday would provide Iran with billions of dollars in sanctions relief, effectively removing all economic pressure from Tehran to abide by the deal.

Weinthal wrote about Iran’s ongoing sanctions violations last week, noting a report from Germany’s domestic intelligence agency on the regime’s efforts to acquire illicit nuclear and ballistic missile technology.