December 2, 2015 | Quote

Erdogan Has a Trump Card Against Putin That Would Transform the Syrian War

Following the downing of a Russian warplane last week by Turkey, Russia has shown no signs of letting up on its military operations near the Turkish-Syrian border.

Prior to the incident, Moscow ignored calls by Ankara to put an “immediate end” to its airstrikes on Turkmen rebel brigades operating along the border.

The tension culminated in Turkey's decision to down the Su-24 fighter jet, which had been bombing units of Liwa Jabal al-Turkman — an ethnic Turkish group backed by Turkey — at the time it was downed.

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Boris Zilberman, a Russia expert with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted how keeping its access to the straits — and to Syria — and avoiding a larger-scale conflict with NATO has likely factored in to Russia's decision to keep its retaliation limited and asymmetrical.

“Putin's options are limited,” Zilberman said in an email, which is why he is “taking action on the margins/asymmetrically.”

“That being said … the Russian-Turkish relationship is a tinderbox,” he added. “The deterioration in the relationship is a loss for both Moscow and Ankara. The egos of Putin and Erdogan may spin any future incident beyond control.”

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Issues:

Russia Syria Turkey