Can Rouhani Deliver After Davos?

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Hassan Rouhani expressed his hopes for the further easing of international sanctions against Iran. He also delivered an address that made promises in three areas: economic integration, regional security, and nuclear deal making. The response to his address was overwhelmingly positive, but the global business elite would be well advised to tread carefully. Even if Rouhani sincerely intends to deliver on his promises – and by no means is that a given — domestic limitations loom large.

On economic integration, Rouhani proclaimed, “globalization has shown amid the financial crisis that we are all in the same boat. If we do not choose wise ship-captains, a storm will harm us all.” But the real “captain” of Iran’s ship remains Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As Iran’s “supreme leader” – a title that is meant to be taken quite literally –Khamenei is threatened by free market forces. He has amassed a significant fortune by cutting out competition, as revealed in a 2013 Reuters report.

At Davos, Rouhani also condemned terrorism as “a fire in human society” that “will engulf those who ignite it.” However, those setting the course for Iran’s Middle East strategy – the IRGC-Quds Force – do not see the world quite that way.  The IRGC’s backing of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, not to mention its terrorist activities across numerous theaters of conflict – which earned Iran a State Department designation of “state sponsor of terrorism” — is precisely what makes the organization so dangerous and valuable to Khamenei. If Rouhani is sincere, he and the IRGC appear to be on a collision course.

On the possibility of a final nuclear deal, Rouhani noted that he does “not foresee an impediment in the way of this agreement.” This, too, may put him at odds with Khamenei. Last November, on the 34^th anniversary of the takeover of the U.S. embassy in Tehran, the supreme leader proclaimed, “leniency towards arrogant powers will bring no benefit for any country.” Thus far, Khamenei has authorized some marginal nuclear concessions. It is unclear whether Iran’s hardliners will support any that go further.

More broadly, hardline parliamentarians have expressed dissatisfaction with Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, not least by pushing legislative measures to sink the Joint Plan of Action. Add to that recent criticism of Rouhani’s Davos performance by Hossein Shariatmadari, the hardline editor of Kayhan whom many claim speaks for the supreme leader, and the stage is set for political infighting in Tehran.

Past Iranian presidents have rarely been able to challenge hardline stakeholders of the Islamic Republic. This dynamic may prevent Rouhani from fulfilling even the modest promises he made at Davos.

Behnam Ben Taleblu is an Iran research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.