August 11, 2015 | Policy Brief

Despite their Quiet, Gulf States Remain Uneasy about Iran Deal

August 11, 2015 | Policy Brief

Despite their Quiet, Gulf States Remain Uneasy about Iran Deal

The Obama administration insists that “99% of the world” supports the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal with Iran, maintaining that Israel is the only government in the world that has expressed opposition to the agreement. This weekend, however, President Obama appeared to walk back that statement, conceding that several other U.S. partners in the region are privately uneasy about the agreement’s terms.

Asked by CNN’s Fareed Zakaria whether other states might be envious of Iran’s permission to enrich uranium under the deal, the president reiterated that the deal had “unanimous support around the world, other than the state of Israel.” However, this time he added, “and perhaps behind the scenes some of our allies who are also suspicious of Iran.”

The president’s remarks understate the unease across the Gulf region, where concern over the deal is palpable at both the official and popular levels. Saudi Arabia’s former intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal warned in March that “whatever comes out of these talks, we will want the same” – namely that if Iran is allowed to enrich, so too must Riyadh. Another Saudi ex-intel chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, asserted that the intelligence community believes the JCPOA will allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, and that Obama approved the deal in bad faith. An anonymous Saudi official quoted in the Boston Globe shortly after the deal was signed that its terms were “extremely dangerous” and would give Riyadh a “green light” to boost its own nuclear energy program.

Shortly after the JCPOA was signed, the Saudi-owned press was filled with op-eds calling for the kingdom to accelerate its nuclear program with an eye toward breakout capacity for possible weaponization. Observers close to the Saudi government have increasingly warned that an Iran approaching breakout capacity would prompt Riyadh to follow suit. At least three Saudi-owned newspapers carried opinion pieces to this effect in the week after the deal was announced. Political cartoons across the Gulf region have been overwhelmingly critical of the JCPOA.

The Gulf monarchies have been at pains to paper over their countries’ widespread popular opposition to the Iran deal. As they did after the interim Joint Plan of Action in 2013 and the Lausanne framework agreement this April, the Gulf Cooperation Council’s member governments (other than Oman) have generally issued vague, conditional responses, officially welcoming the deal but warning that Iran must be compelled to abide by its terms and end its aid to terrorist groups region-wide.

When Obama met with Gulf leaders at Camp David in May, he sought to allay their concerns about an impending deal by promising to train and arm their militaries. Still, it appears many of Washington’s Gulf partners remain deeply skeptical about the agreement. Their reluctance to condemn the deal publicly is understandable – none wants to be singled out for the same public criticism that the administration has directed at another ally, Israel.

David Andrew Weinberg is a Senior Fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @DavidAWeinberg

Issues:

Iran