April 6, 2015 | Quote

Will Saudi Arabia’s New King Regret the Arab Intervention in Yemen?

Dr. David Andrew Weinberg, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told VICE News the first Saudi intervention in Yemen was costly and inconclusive, and contributed to the downfall of former Deputy Minister of Defense Khalid bin Sultan. According to Weinberg, the Saudi military failed to accomplish its goals in Yemen partly because they had trouble distinguishing military from civilian targets in Yemen, a problem that still persists today. According to Reuters, an airstrike Saturday on a village near the Yemeni capital Sanaa killed a family of nine. The Red Cross has also said the Saudi-led coalition is blocking shipments of humanitarian aid and supplies into Yemen.

Weinberg called the possibility of a GCC fighting force “a load of baloney,” noting that we've already seen the GCC coalition break down during the current conflict. The Sultanate of Oman decided not to participate in strikes against the Houthis, showing how tricky it can be to pull together a group of just six neighbors. International opposition could also be a problem: On Saturday, Russia presented UN draft resolution calling for pause in Yemen airstrikes.

Meanwhile, the Islamic State continues to creep into the Gulf states, and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is enjoying some temporary relief as attention is focused on Yemen's Houthis. But later on, assuming King Salman can pull together a joint military force, those troops could eventually be wielded against al Qaeda or Islamic State pockets in Libya, Syria, Iraq, or the Gulf states.

The changing situation in Yemen will test King Sulman's diplomacy, resiliency, and war fighting skills. As he reflects on the mistakes of his predecessors, he will have to strive to maintain and grow the current coalition of the willing that is arrayed against the Houthis. His performance during the conflict in Yemen will be a good indicator of whether this force can evolve into a long-lasting international coalition.

Unfortunately, the Saudi military is not well suited to fight a drawn out counter-insurgency campaign outside the country, and, in Weinberg's words, King Salman may find his initial push for interventionism, “crushed on the shoals of Yemen's harsh landscape.”

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