May 7, 2012 | Quote
Did Obama Improve Our Position in Afghanistan?
I asked Cliff May of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies his take on whether the Taliban was growing stronger. He answered via e-mail: “They have an ideology/theology they believe in. They have continuing sources of funding (thanks to oil and drugs). They have no shortage of new recruits. They perceive America and the West to be tiring and weakening. Why would they not be growing stronger?”
His colleague Reuel Marc Gerecht is no more optimistic: “The Afghan Army is not there yet. It’s made considerable progress, but it takes a lot of time, especially given how weak the Pashtun center is.” He continued: “Right now you’d have to guess that the Army would fracture into its component ethnic parts within 24 months — perhaps less — of an American withdrawal. The critical factor would be Pakistani military supplies: how quickly and in what quantity would Islamabad deliver the weaponry [to the Taliban] that would make a difference.” He surmises that “Kandahar would be theirs pretty quickly. With that base, they would again take the south. Just a question of time.”