The Epicenter Of The Syrian War Is Shifting

Russian airstrikes across northern Syria have been steadily shifting the epicenter of the war toward a corridor north of Aleppo, through which Turkey smuggles aid and supplies to the rebel groups it supports.

A stepped-up Russian bombing campaign in the Bayirbucak region of northwest Syria, near the strategically important city of Azaz, has primarily targeted the Turkey-backed Turkmen rebels and civilians — and the Turkish aid convoys that supply them.

As a result, Turkey's policy in Syria of bolstering rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime — and establishing a “safe zone” for displaced Syrians that might hinder the regime's efforts to take Aleppo — is quickly unraveling.

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Turkey could try to change the facts on the ground by intervening — but it would “undoubtedly have serious drawbacks,” Aykan Erdemir, a nonresident fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former member of Turkish parliament, told Business Insider.

Still, Erdemir said it would be unwise to underestimate Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's interest in pursuing “a more adventurous policy” there.

“Erdogan wouldn't like to experience the humiliation of the total defeat of his Syria policy. Furthermore, he could see direct Turkish involvement in Syria and the ensuing crisis as an opportunity to strengthen his bid for an executive presidential system,” Erdemir said.

He added: “We should also keep in mind that Erdogan now has almost total control over the Turkish media, and possesses a strong capacity to shape and steer public opinion, which would allow him to market even as risky and unattractive an idea as entering the Syrian battlefield.”

Even so, there is little Turkey can do about the Russian airstrikes without provoking a situation in which NATO would be forced to come to its defense — any intervention, Erdemir said, “could further escalate the Turkish-Russian crisis, prompting heavier sanctions, and even new episodes of clashes between the two armies.”

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