Iran Nuclear Deal Could Become a Perennial Cliffhanger

The expected showdown in Congress next month over the administration's nuclear deal with Iran is only the first in a series of challenges that could leave the fate of the historic agreement uncertain for years and blemish President Obama's most ambitious foreign policy effort. 

Although the accord appears on track to survive congressional opposition in the short term, if necessary with a presidential veto, opponents have begun laying plans to force its overhaul or repudiation down the road. Republican presidential candidates are united against it, and several have vowed to discard or amend it if elected.

Even if it overcomes those obstacles, the deal could collapse during implementation if clear evidence emerges of Iranian cheating, if major disputes erupt over inspections and rules, or if governments and United Nations agencies fail to properly oversee it.

The agreement also could be undermined by Iranian hard-liners who see a threat to their business interests, or by friction with Iran over the civil war in Syria or other Middle East conflicts.

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Obama's “nightmare scenario is not that the deal is blocked, but that he's handed a resounding political defeat” and the accord is undermined, said Mark Dubowitz, executive director of Foundation for Defense of Democracies, one of the most active opponents of the accord.

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