Iran Unlikely to Spend Most of its Post-Sanctions Funds on Militants, CIA Says

A secret U.S. intelligence assessment predicts that Iran’s government will pump most of an expected $100-billion windfall from the lifting of international sanctions into the country's flagging economy and won't significantly boost funding for militant groups it supports in the Middle East.

Intelligence analysts concluded that even if Tehran increased support for Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen or President Bashar Assad’s embattled government in Syria, the extra cash is unlikely to tip the balance of power in the world’s most volatile region, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the intelligence document.

The controversial CIA report, on which key members of Congress have been briefed, provides ammunition to both sides in the battle brewing on Capitol Hill over what White House aides call President Obama’s signature foreign policy achievement, a sweeping multinational agreement that aims to block Iran’s ability to build nuclear weapons for at least a decade in exchange for the easing of sanctions that have hobbled its economy. 

Iran funnels tens of millions of dollars to Hezbollah each year, according to U.S. estimates. Tehran gives far more, an estimated $6 billion a year, in cash, oil and other aid to Assad’s government in Syria, which is engulfed in civil war.

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“Syria is really where Iran is spending significant amounts,” Mark Dubowitz, an expert on sanctions policy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington research institute, said in a telephone interview.

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