Our ‘Snapbacks’ Became Iran’s Nuclear Blackmail

The idea of a “snapback” on Iran sanctions was always problematic because of the time it takes to detect a violation, agree it is a violation, bring it to Iran’s attention, implement (“snapback”) sanctions and ensure enforcement to deter an Iranian “sneakout” (a dash to a nuclear weapon). The structure of the deal also makes snapbacks a relatively useless tool.

…

Mark Dubowitz, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Annie Fixler wrote:

As a result of this agreement, after fifteen years, Iran will likely have an industrial-sized and widely dispersed nuclear program, with unlimited advanced centrifuge capacity, zero breakout, and multiple heavy-water reactors—all of which will be increasingly seen as legitimate by the international community.

Simultaneously, over time, the agreement will leave only residual economic leverage to peacefully deter Iranian nuclear weapons development because sanctions relief will enable Iran to expand its economy and build economic resiliency to economic pressure. . .

Snapback sanctions may be somewhat successful in the early years of the agreement when international companies are still reluctant to return to Iran and countries are still relatively united in their response to Iranian violations. However, they are likely to become much less effective in the later years. The international sanctions regime took decades to put in place and to have an impact on Iran’s economy and decision making. In the later years of the agreement, international companies may have invested tens of billions of dollars back into Iran and will likely be less willing to forgo their business interests because of Iranian nuclear violations. It is also at this point, particularly after year ten of the agreement when key constraints on Iran’s nuclear program disappear, that economic leverage will be needed most to deter Iranian violations and to prevent Tehran from using its expanding nuclear infrastructure to move to a nuclear weapon.

… 

Read the full article here.