The Concessions to Iran Keep on Coming

If you are concerned about a rotten deal with Iran that might actually begin a Middle East nuclear arms race and put Iran on a glide path to getting nuclear weapons, you might be taking solace in the notion that there is no way the sides will reach agreement on issues such as anywhere/anytime inspections or on snapback sanctions. Well, get ready for a series of accommodations that essentially give Iran everything it wants.

Reuters reports: “Six world powers have agreed on a way to restore U.N. sanctions on Iran if the country breaks the terms of a future nuclear deal, clearing a major obstacle to an accord ahead of a June 30 deadline, Western officials told Reuters.” How will this work? I hope you’re sitting down:

“As part of the new agreement on sanctions snapback, suspected breaches by Iran would be taken up by a dispute-resolution panel, likely including the six powers and Iran, which would assess the allegations and come up with a non-binding opinion, the officials said. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would also continue regularly reporting on Iran’s nuclear program, which would provide the six powers and the Security Council with information on Tehran’s activities to enable them to assess compliance. If Iran was found to be in non-compliance with the terms of the deal, then U.N. sanctions would be restored. The officials did not say precisely how sanctions would be restored but Western powers have been adamant that it should take place without a Security Council vote, based on provisions to be included in a new U.N. Security Council resolution to be adopted after a deal is struck.” 

No, seriously — that’s the plan. We’re going to allow Iran to be part of the “dispute resolution” and then let Russia and China get a veto in the Security Council. An official with a pro-Israel organization dismisses the plan, saying, “It is preposterous to believe that a Rube Goldberg type mechanism can be erected to stop or punish Iran from violating a treaty. If Iran is allowed to retain a nuclear infrastructure, you can count on them to find a way to break out to a nuclear weapon.”

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The plan, in fact, is a formula for paralysis. “Whatever scheme the Russians, Chinese and Iranians agree to, it is likely to neutralize the power of U.S. secondary sanctions and ‘multilateralize’ the snapback sanctions mechanism,” says Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “In whatever diplomatic formula is implemented, we are likely to run into a wall of Russian and Chinese intransigence and lose the power of American economic coercion in response to Iranian cheating or challenging of the IAEA.” That essentially means that once lifted, sanctions won’t be reactivated in any meaningful time period. Dubowitz explains: “Without effective economic coercion to enforce the deal, Iran will be able to inch-out or sneakout to a bomb or wait patiently for 10-15 years when most of the restrictions on its program will sunset. At that point, after hundreds of billions of dollars in sanctions relief, Iran will have a powerful economy increasingly immunized against any future snapback scenario.”

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Read the full article here.