Will Trump demolish the ‘horrible’ nuclear deal with Iran?

Donald Trump could be poised to take the first step towards unravelling the nuclear deal with Iran by declaring Tehran has not complied with it.

The president, who has described the deal as “horrible”, has already signalled his intention to hold Iran noncompliant next month. By law, Iran's adherance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is reviewed every 90 days, after which the state department can either re-certify Iran's compliance to the US congress — or not.

If the president sticks to his promise to de-certify Iran, experts say this would at the very least tighten America's noose on Tehran or at worst, mark the beginning of the end of the JCPOA.

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In 1991, the then secretary of state James Baker came up with the “dead cat strategy ” — placing a (metaphorical) dead cat on the doorstep of a recalcitrant party as a way of shaming them into co-operation. De-certifying Iran borrows from that strategy, Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, told The National.

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But for Mr Dubowitz de-certifying the deal “should be combined with a [US] willingness to sit down and negotiate a follow-on agreement [with Iran] that addresses the current deal's fatal flaws. Iran cannot be allowed, like North Korea was, to take patient pathways to nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles.”

But even if Mr Trump declares Iran to be non-compliant, there is still no indication that the US administration has a strategy to tackle Tehran’s regional behaviour.

With US-Iran tensions on the rise, could disrupting the nuclear agreement trigger confrontation? Mr Dubowitz acknowledges the atmosphere is more highly-charged.

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Mr Dubowitz says a new, broad strategy is needed to counter Tehran’s activities across the Levant and the GCC. But Mr Miller said the Trump administration prefers the status quo when it comes to the Middle East.

“In Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and the Gulf, the Trump policy has not differed much from Barack Obama’s.” However, once the US sheds the nuclear agreement, Washington could become “more ambitious”.

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