Europe Seen as Wild Card as Iran Nuclear Deal Goes Into Effect

Critics of the nuclear deal with Iran want the Obama administration to quickly set firm limits on sanctions relief to prevent the international coalition that brought Tehran to the table from unraveling.

With the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) having gone into effect Oct. 18, skeptics worry that a trickle of European companies entering the Iranian market will soon turn into a flood. They say that could neuter the non-nuclear sanctions that are supposed to stay in place under the deal, while making it harder for Europe and the United States to collaborate on snapping back nuclear sanctions if Iran violates its terms.

…

The future of the sanctions regime “really depends on how assertive will US authorities be early on in the game, because it will set the precedent and the tone for the Europeans,” said Emanuele Ottolenghi, a senior fellow at the hawkish Foundation for the Defense of Democracies who has advised Congress as well as several European foreign ministries on Iranian issues. He told Al-Monitor, “If the Europeans see that there are little consequences and there is little action against them, they’ll push the boundaries, no doubt.”

“If the message is, ‘We’re still fighting the deal,’ then Europeans are going to shrug, because the deal is done,” said Ottolenghi. He added, “But if the message is, ‘We’re not fighting the deal, but what we’re doing is to ensure that the business community is diligent about who they’re doing business with’ … then I think you will have a different response because the argument will not be, ‘Don’t do business with Iran,’ the argument will be, ‘Do business with that part of Iran that is not tainted by connections with the proliferation-industrial complex, with terrorism, with the IRGC [Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps], and so on.’”

…

Read the full article here.