January 27, 2014 | New York Daily News

Russia’s ‘Ring of Steel’ Around Sochi Can’t Stop Terror Attacks Outside

Next month’s Olympic Games in Sochi have generated a great deal of anxiety about the possibility of terrorist attacks.

Sochi is the most dangerous Olympics we have seen in terms of the threat. This doesn’t mean an attack is more likely than not, nor that, as one U.S. lawmaker suggested, Americans should avoid the Games. Whether terrorists will strike any given public event is a question of probabilities, not absolutes — and even if there were an attack in Sochi, the odds are that any given American attending would be neither killed nor injured.

But in terms of probability of a significant terrorist attack, these Olympics have the highest odds we have seen.

What sets these Games apart is that Russia has faced a sustained campaign from Caucasus militant groups who have shown both the intent to carry out attacks and deadly competence at doing so.

Doku Umarov, the possibly late leader of the insurgent group Caucasus Emirate, threatened in July to attack the Olympics. Last month, two suicide bombings in Volgograd that killed 34 were a bloody warning about the dangers to athletes and spectators. The threat was underscored when a video surfaced Jan. 19 of two young men, presumably the Volgograd bombers, who warned, “That which we have done is only a little example.”

Russian authorities are now searching for possible female suicide bombers, dubbed “black widows” because women who have carried out attacks against Russia over more than a decade were motivated by revenge for husbands or other family members whom Russian forces killed.

Russia has promised a “ring of steel” around Sochi, and the security measures are indeed extensive. There are up to 40,000 security officers in the city, and NBC notes that it is “packed with metal detectors, bomb-sniffing dogs and explosive detectors.”

The problem with a ring of steel is that terrorists can strike outside that ring. A Caucasus terrorist did this in a 2011 suicide bombing at Moscow’s Domodedovo Airport, where he struck just outside the security perimeter. If an attack occurs during the Sochi Olympics, either in a line waiting to pass through security or in an adjoining town, it will still succeed in causing death, frightening people and calling attention to the attackers.

Of course, having 40,000 security personnel scouring the area gives Russia a chance to disrupt any plots. If terrorists actually reach the operational stage, Russian authorities are pinning their hopes on these officers being more than just “security theater.”

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and an adjunct assistant professor in Georgetown University’s security studies program. He is the author or volume editor of 12 books and monographs, including “Bin Laden’s Legacy” (Wiley, 2011).

Issues:

Russia