Study: Al-Qaeda, Not ISIS, ‘Better Positioned for the Longterm’

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), along with Jason Fritz, Bridget Moreng, and Nathaniel Barr from Valens Global, co-wrote the study, “The War Between the Islamic State and al-Qaeda: Strategic Dimensions of a Patricidal Conflict.”

Valens Global is Gartenstein-Ross’ consulting firm.

“The competition between the two groups will likely be fierce, and will involve unexpected developments,” the study determines, adding:

    Al-Qaeda’s strategy is better positioned for the long term, though IS’s emergence has placed significant pressures on al-Qaeda’s network, and has transformed some of its strengths into weaknesses—for example, by leveraging al-Qaeda’s     use of front groups to make its network seem less attractive to affiliates IS is trying to woo.

“If the right circumstances align for IS, it could severely weaken al-Qaeda’s network,” adds the report.

The study acknowledges that ISIS has enjoyed more attention from the media and the military given its savagery.

Al-Qaeda being in a better position to last than ISIS may go against conventional wisdom, concedes Gartenstein-Ross. However, that matters little to him.

“That is our view,” he told Military.com, speaking of the report. ”It is very contrary to the conventional wisdom in the field, but the fact that it is contrary doesn’t bug me. I have been contrary for the past 4.5 years or so and most of the time, my record has born out pretty well.”

The study examines the differences between the two terrorist groups, noting that ISIS had previously been al-Qaeda’s Iraq-based affiliate.

“For one, IS is more technology-savvy than al-Qaeda; it understands social media’s ability to mobilize people to its cause on an unprecedented scale, a dynamic that has helped IS connect with a younger demographic,” notes the report.

The report also states:

    IS also expects to experience success in a shorter time frame than al-Qaeda: While al-Qaeda developed a long-term strategy designed to flout operations against it by appealing to and becoming an organic part of local     populations, IS thought the time was ripe to capture significant territory, crush its foes, and declare the caliphate’s reestablishment.

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Read the full article here.