Power Shifts Fuel Talk of Change in Palestinian Politics

Rumblings in Ramallah in recent weeks have raised expectations that Palestinian politics is in play, with 80-year-old President Mahmoud Abbas, in power for more than a decade, facing a mounting challenge to his leadership.

There is frequent speculation that Abbas, who was elected to a four-year term in 2005 and has not had to face a vote since then, is about to step down. He has confounded those predictions in the past and may well do so again.

But the degree of rumor-mongering and alliance-shifting over the past two months suggests change is in the air, or at least that agitation against his presidency is growing.

Earlier this month, Abbas unexpectedly dismissed the secretary-general of the Palestine Liberation Organization and his effective number two, Yasser Abed Rabbo, who had been critical of his decision-making for some time.

In his place, the president appointed Saeb Erekat, a long-time adviser and occasional confidant who has been the chief negotiator with the Israelis for the past two decades.

Then, in a separate but related development, a Palestinian appeals court ruled that Mohammed Dahlan, a former official in the Fatah party who is now a rival to Abbas, was entitled to parliamentary immunity in a case brought against him by an anti-corruption body set up by the president.

As if those moves and feints were not enough, Israel's Channel 1 reported on Sunday that Abbas had told confidants he would step down within two months, just before a Fatah party congress penciled in for Nov. 29.

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“I don't see elections anytime soon, but I do see some intrigue at the Fatah conference in November,” said Grant Rumley, an expert in Palestinian affairs at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, DC.

“Erekat's tapping as the next PLO secretary-general might be a hint that he'll be appointed vice-president,” he said, adding that the success of the Palestinian leadership ultimately depended on its ability to negotiate with Israel.

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