April 12, 2012 | Quote
Iran’s Trail of Terror
Not since the fall of the Soviet Union has any nation so aggressively pursued alliances with bad actors in so many places worldwide, acknowledged Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA officer who focused primarily on Iran. “Their outreach is bolder than it used to be” and is “pretty disturbing” given “their proclivity for nefarious activity.” …
Gerecht and others described King’s claim as perhaps exaggerated. Asked about that, King said: “Committee staff conducted a months-long investigation on the threat posed by Iran and Hezbollah to the homeland, assessing it not only from what we heard in official briefings but leveraging extensive counterterrorism sources and contacts. In addition, during our hearing on this threat, witnesses testified that they agreed with this number.” …
The Iranians “are extremely comfortable talking about their nuclear program,” Gerecht said, and “the focus on the nuclear program has been so intense” that it allows them to escape discussion of their foreign misadventures and human rights abuses at home. …
Gerecht and Milani agree with these concerns, but they also offer some notes of caution. Right now, Iran remains the favorite boogeyman for American government officials. There’s no political cost for standing up to make florid accusations about the state. …
But he and Gerecht point to something most people don’t talk about: Iran’s foreign operatives are generally incompetent. We know about their recent operations in Azerbaijan, Thailand, Yemen, India, Gambia and South Africa because in every case they were caught. …
“The regime, since its earliest days, has been on a mission,” Gerecht said. “They really do see a clash of civilizations, and they see themselves as the cutting edge for one side, the Muslim side. And for them, the first cut for dividing the world is: ‘Are you opposed to the United States? Are you the enemy of the U.S.?’ If so, the Iranians will look upon you fondly.”
But “the truth is,” he added, “they’re pretty sloppy about what they do. They probably have plans, but execution would probably be problematic.” …
One big problem for Iran, Gerecht noted, is how little its security officers actually understand the West. In the regime’s early years, many officials had already spent time in the U.S. or Europe, going to college or serving in the embassy. But most of those people have retired, and now “fewer and fewer of the elite actually have any firsthand knowledge of the West,” Gerecht said. “They can quite easily completely misjudge situations.” …
“You know,” said Gerecht, “they’re not Darth Vader; they do make a lot of mistakes. But they define themselves by the great unending battle with the United States. They can direct aid to militants who want to blow themselves up — and blow up Americans.
“That’s a real concern we shouldn’t belittle.”