December 19, 2016 | Policy Brief

Envoy’s Murder Exposes Turkey-Russia Fault Lines

December 19, 2016 | Policy Brief

Envoy’s Murder Exposes Turkey-Russia Fault Lines

Andrei Karlov, the Russian ambassador to Ankara, was assassinated in the heart of the Turkish capital on Monday night. The assailant, an off-duty Turkish police officer, shouted, “Don’t forget Aleppo”– denouncing Moscow’s role in the ongoing massacre of civilians in the besieged Syrian city. Amidst recent efforts by Turkey and Russia to paper over their differences on Syria, the assassination is a reminder of just how deep those fault lines run.

It has been a volatile two years for Turkish-Russian relations. The two sides have been at loggerheads over the Syrian crisis since 2012, with Moscow supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Ankara providing material support to anti-regime rebels. Tensions reached their zenith last November when Turkey downed a Russian warplane that had crossed into its air space. The incident followed weeks of mounting tensions over Russian bombardment of Turkish-backed Turkmen rebels in northern Syria. The fallout lasted nearly a year, until the two sides announced a restoration of ties in late June.

The coup attempt in Turkey the following month provided a unique opportunity to cement those restored relations: Russia’s Vladimir Putin was among the first foreign leaders to call Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the coup’s aftermath. Concurrently, the failed putsch also rattled Turkey’s relationship with Washington. Ankara identifies Fethullah Gulen, a Turkish cleric living in the U.S. since 1999, as the culprit, and Turkish authorities have alleged U.S. complicity in the attempt. Erdogan has since cozied up to Moscow, signaling a geostrategic realignment to the detriment of Turkey’s ties with the EU and NATO.

The Kremlin views its new relationship with Ankara as an important asset. Indeed, post-coup, the Turkish government’s anti-Americanism is at an all-time high, and ties with the EU are reaching breaking point as Erdogan continues his heavy-handed crackdown on dissent.

For his part, Erdogan now seeks to leverage his ties with fellow strongman Putin against his Western counterparts: While Washington and Brussels voice concerns about Turkey’s dismal human rights record, neither wants to lose NATO’s southern flank to the Russian orbit. To maintain that leverage, Turkish officials have dialed down their anti-Assad rhetoric in recent months, and even fashioned a semblance of cooperation with Moscow over Aleppo. In fact, Russia is preparing to host Turkey and Iran in Moscow for trilateral talks on Syria next week.

Both Ankara and Moscow will likely downplay Monday’s attack to maintain the ties they only re-established in June. But it is clear now that the Turkish and Russian people have not forgotten the rhetoric of their governments from the period when ties were strained. As Monday’s assassination underscores, that mutual animosity will be harder to sweep under the rug than Erdogan and Putin might hope.

Merve Tahiroglu is a research associate at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow her on Twitter @MerveTahiroglu

Issues:

Russia Turkey