Thank Russia For Turkey-Israel Rapprochement

Turkey and Israel reached an agreement Thursday to normalize diplomatic relations after a five-year freeze in bilateral ties. The preliminary agreement stipulates the return of both countries’ ambassadors, the expulsion of a Turkey-based Hamas official and, crucially, a potential energy deal whereby Israel would export natural gas to Turkey and from there to Europe. The announcement comes amid Turkey’s escalating diplomatic crisis with Russia, and signals Ankara’s recognition of its urgent need to diversify its energy sources. 

Turkey and Israel suspended ties in 2010 after the Mavi Marmara flotilla to Gaza, in which 10 Turkish citizens were killed when Israeli troops raided their vessels. Although the two sides reached a compensation agreement last year, there had been little chance for a full restoration of relations until now, given Turkey’s demand that Israel lift the blockade on Gaza, and Israel’s that Ankara cut ties with the Hamas movement that controls the territory. At least one of those demands appears to be addressed in the current deal, which includes the expulsion of Hamas leader Saleh Arouri from his home base in Turkey. 

While Turkish and Israeli officials have been in secret talks since the summer, the energy clause may have been what finally sealed the deal. Turkey is import-dependent for energy and could benefit from Israel’s natural gas supply. Moreover, with its existing energy infrastructure, Turkey would be the natural transit point for Israel to send its newfound gas supplies to Europe, thereby realizing the Turkish government’s dream of turning the country into an energy hub.

Despite the potential mutual benefits, however, Turkey’s strained political relations with Israel have so far impeded any cooperation on energy. That calculation changed this month, when Russia responded to Turkey downing its fighter jet in late November by launching a propaganda campaign and sanctioning certain Turkish products. The punitive steps will only mildly hurt the Turkish economy, but as Turkey’s top energy supplier, Russia could cause far more serious damage should it cut off or reduce its natural gas exports. 

The dependence is to some degree shared: Turkey is Russia’s second-largest energy market and the only one in which demand is rising. Still, the Kremlin has used the energy card for geopolitical purposes before, and Ankara feels threatened.

That feeling of vulnerability is likely the main driver of Turkey’s rapprochement with Israel, one that comes at the expense of the government’s long-touted commitment to the Palestinians, and to Gaza in particular. Having survived a make-or-break election last month to solidify its rule for at least four years, Turkey’s governing party feels secure, even emboldened, at home. For Ankara to therefore forgo its demands on Gaza as a precondition for normalizing ties with Israel signals its fear of an energy crisis – one that Moscow may one day threaten to spark.

Merve Tahiroglu is a research associate at Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow her on Twitter @MerveTahiroglu