The Iran Deal’s Slow Death

Back when the negotiations were still under way for The Deal between Iran and the P5+1, I accurately forecast the outcome would be a “No Deal Deal.” I described it this way:

Obama/Kerry/Rhodes won’t take “no” for a definitive answer, so we’re probably going to see a new form of creative appeasement.  Short version:  It will be a “no deal deal.”  Iran promises to try really really hard to be nice and we pay for it.  Everyone agrees to commit to a “real” agreement by the end of the year.  Iran gets money–the continuation of the monthly payoff, and under-the-table arrangements like the gold shipment the South Africans delivered to Khamenei–and we get smiles.

There is no deal, per se–nobody signs anything–but we get the worst of it any how.  If John Kerry thinks that’s enough for a Nobel Peace Prize, he’s got an even lower opinion of the judgment of the Oslo crowd than I do.  And he may be right.  Chamberlain was widely praised as a great peacemaker for a while, and Carter was greatly admired when he proclaimed we had given up our “inordinate fear of Communism.”  And we’ll keep talking, won’t we?  And Obama just reiterated–at the Pentagon no less–that guns don’t defeat ideologies, only good ideas do.

I dare say very few people realize there is no formal deal. Countless journalists refer to something that was “signed” or “inked” in Vienna, even though no such thing took place. A handful of careful writers, notably Yigal Carmon and Amir Taheri have gotten it right, and last week the State Department admitted that nobody has signed The Deal and it is not legally binding on anybody.

As I wrote in July, Iran has promised to be on good behavior, and we have promised to pay for it. We are indeed paying, as we have for more than two years ($700 million per month), and the Iranians, as is their wont, have done their worst to spread terror and jihadism all over the world, from the Middle East to Asia, Africa and South America.

Such a deal! Carmon thinks Obama will have to admit failure, and return to the negotiating table. As I predicted…

Meanwhile, the Iranian parliament has indeed approved a document, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has signed on. But it’s not The Deal. It’s a set of 9 conditions with new demands, and a promise that any failure by the West—especially the United States—to accept the new terms, would entitle Iran to walk away from whatever-it-is-we-think-we-agreed. The No Deal Deal, that is.

Furthermore, news abounds documenting Iranian warfare. Scores of Iranian fighters are dying in Syria, where they are trying to salvage the wobbly Syrian regime of Bashar Assad. Indeed, the larger-than-life symbol of Iranian military might, Quds Force commander General Qassem Suleimani, has disappeared from the region’s top selfie albums, and has been reported badly wounded or even dead. Elsewhere, Iranian-supported Houthi “rebels” have stepped up their attacks in Yemen, and in Kenya, the government reports that two locals have confessed to working for the Iranian regime. Boko Haram, long supported by Tehran, continues its massacres, and you can expect more of this. Who’s going to stop them?

Certainly not the United States, whose president embraces a deal that doesn’t exist, and proclaims “climate change” the greatest threat to mankind.

Michael Ledeen is the Freedom Scholar at Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @michaelledeen.