Yet Another American Hostage In Tehran

Siamak Namazi is in Evin Prison in Tehran, and on the face of it that’s very surprising. Why? Because he’s long been a friend and supporter of the regime that has incarcerated him. He’s an Iranian-American who, with the blessings of the authorities, has been back and forth for many years. He’s created companies in both Iran and the United States, and he’s lobbied the US Government and the American business community to do more business with the Iranians. He has had a long, close relationship with Trita Parsi, the creator of NIAC, aka the Iranian lobby. If you talk to any prominent Iranian-American critics of the Islamic Republic, they’ll tell you that Namazi is an “objective agent” of the regime, and perhaps a real one.

So how come he’s in jail?

The Wall Street Journal’s very good reporters, Jay Solomon and Farnaz Fassini, are undoubtedly on the right path when they guess that Namazi is a pawn in a fight we don’t entirely comprehend.

In the past few weeks, Iranian businessmen with links to foreign companies have been detained, interrogated and warned against wading into economic monopolies controlled by the Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to several businessmen interviewed inside and outside of Iran.

No doubt the Revolutionary Guards Corps, believed by many serious and attentive Iran watchers to be the single most powerful institution in the Islamic Republic, wants as much money as it can extort from foreign trade. But money lust, important as it is, is only one element in Iran. There’s something closely related and much more important: the succession to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This vicious struggle involves several factions, which are invariably misdescribed.

Here’s how the Washington Post puts it, which has the merit of moving the analysis outside a money/business context:

Namazi’s arrest suggests that hard-liners in Iran may be trying to create another point of tension with the United States and thereby throw a wrench in the Iran nuclear deal. His arrest came days before an ­agreed-upon date called adoption day, when the Iranian government has committed to begin dismantling some of its nuclear infrastructure.

The part of the government controlled by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is reformist-minded and seeks more engagement with the West to help jump-start its economy. But hard-liners who control the judiciary and intelligence services oppose the idea, fearful it will open the country to foreign influence. The Revolutionary Guard, Iraq’s most powerful security and military organization, is the entity that would have been responsible for the arrests of the four Iranian Americans.” 

It’s the old “moderates” vs. hard-liners template all over again. You’d have thought Iran watchers would have gotten over this fantasy by now, but it’s still with us. We apply it willy-nilly to most any totalitarian system. Stalin was the hard-liner in the Kremlin, and Kremlinologists were forever assuring us that there were many lovable moderates in there. Indeed, comrade Cernenko was originally presented as a jazz-loving softy when he came to power. A few years back, Iran experts assured us there had been a sea change in Tehran, when Ayatollah Mohammad Khatami was chosen to be president. No reforms ensued, and yet Rouhani is nonetheless viewed by most Western pundits and reporters as a “real” reformer. No matter that repression in Iran is far worse today than it was during the Ahmadinejad years. No matter that Iran—whose apologists used to chant that the Islamic Republic hadn’t invaded anyone (try that line today with the Lebanese, Iraqis and Syrians)—is waging war throughout the Middle East.

Take your pick: either Rouhani is a fraud, or no reform is possible in Iran. By the way, have you noticed that Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei has NOT approved The Nuclear Deal?   His is the only vote that matters, and he’s insisting on conditions very different from those Congress has been told Obama approved.

So why is Namazi in jail? I don’t think he’s the unlucky victim of any particular political faction, any more than the other American hostages are. Nor do I think his arrest bespeaks a fight over policy.

There is certainly a fight among the most powerful Iranians, but it is a lot bigger than any dispute over policies, or profits. Khamenei is a sick man. If ten percent of the “news” about his failing health were true, Khamenei would have been buried long since. In such circumstances, the ruling class has had plenty of time to prepare for his successor. Trouble is, there are lots of candidates and many groups supporting them. The candidates range from military leaders like General Qassem Suleimani to religious figures of varying degrees of fanaticism. There are probably eight or nine groups maneuvering for power, and alliances between them shift rapidly. Take the Revolutionary Guards, for example. The first generation is no longer a self-proclaimed revolutionary force. These older men want wealth and tranquility, while the younger RGs are far more aggressive. They want regional and global power. Among the clergy, some insist on greater indoctrination of the public which, increasingly urban and educated, does not fill the mosques; others want greater acceptance of the young, secular Iranians who probably represent the biggest national demographic. And so it goes, a war of all against all in a failing state that can’t pay teachers or oil workers on time.

It’s quite normal for Iran to take hostages, especially Americans. They’re chips in the global poker game, and sometimes they are victims of their own behavior. It may very well be that Namazi, who is in the oil business among his other activities, made some deals that greatly annoyed powerful regime leaders. His incarceration may just be “payback” for some business transaction.

Whatever the explanation, there is no reason to be surprised. Ask the families of the American journalist, the Marine and the pastor who have been in Evin Prison these many months and years. It’s the way the Iranian leaders are.

Michael Ledeen is the Freedom Scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @michaelledeen.