In Race to Capture Syria’s Raqqa, Assad May Have Edge

Islamic State-controlled territory in Syria has shrunk by nearly a quarter in the past few months, but Kurds, Syrian rebels and forces loyal to embattled President Bashar al-Assad have all grabbed pieces of the self-styled caliphate.

Undeterred, the terror group's propagandists are maintaining their bravado, recently posting an online “travel brochure” depicting bucolic scenes around their Syrian stronghold in Raqqa and courting visitors.

Earlier this week, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Dria became the first senior official from a member of the U.S.-led coalition against IS to offer a hopeful timetable for the capture of Raqqa, as well as the group’s key Iraqi stronghold, Mosul. He said in a speech the two cities “must fall in 2016.”

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“It would be better if Western-backed Kurds and their SDF allies took Raqqa instead of the Assad-allied Russians, who would almost certainly be accompanied by Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah, or other Shi’ite militias,” said Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank.

“Ideally, we should see both the Assad axis and the jihadists lose territory,” he added. “But I certainly have my doubts that this could be achieved without serious planning and coordination on the part of the United States and other Western allies. I am not hopeful that this kind of serious planning and coordination is taking place. I would be very pleased to be proven wrong.”

The prize of Raqqa is tempting for Assad, according to Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a Middle east analyst and chief executive officer of Valens Global, a U.S.-based consulting firm that focuses on threats posed by violent non-state actors.

“Russia-backed regime forces taking Raqqa will definitely make it look like Russia is in the lead in Syria,” said Gartenstein-Ross. “That will have broader implications for the U.S.-Russia strategic competition. And Assad would definitely be strengthened, certainly perceptually, if his forces take Raqqa. That calculation changes if Assad's men later get sucked into a quagmire in Raqqa or even get booted back out, but the immediate effect would be strengthening Assad.”

Overall, Gartenstein-Ross sees Assad and his allies better positioned to secure Raqqa.

“To be clear, he'd also be strengthened if Kurdish forces capture Raqqa,” he argued. “The Kurds would have more difficulty keeping Raqqa, and would likely look to hand it off quickly to the regime or local forces.”

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