ISIS and the New ‘Army of Conquest’ in Syria Are Headed for a Showdown

Two successive months and two stunning battlefield reversals for the embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad—one dealt him in the east by the so-called Islamic State, the other in the north by a new coalition of rebel forces that includes an affiliate of al Qaeda in a leading role. Now, as the two armies look to expand their territorial gains at the Assad regime’s expense, they’re also converging on each other.

The clash between the terror state widely known as ISIS and the newly emerged Jaish al Fata, or Army of Conquest, is likely to come sooner than later. Most likely it will happen in the vicinity of Homs, referred to by many rebels as “the capital of the revolution.” Ironically (or maybe not), Homs stands on the ancient caravan route between the ISIS-overrun Palmyra and the Mediterranean.

There are signs that Assad is hedging his bets now, preparing for a last stand in the Alawi coastal strongholds. Rebel commanders say for weeks now the Assad regime has been stockpiling more military gear in the mountain redoubts of his minority Alawi sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam, in preparation to carve out a rump state.

So inept was the defense of Palmyra and the nearby city of Tadmur that some observers wondered if Assad abandoned the site with its unique ruins and irreplaceable ancient artifacts and treasures deliberately, to gain Western sympathy support. The jihadis can be counted on to  set about looting and smashing up the unique site. But the strategic importance of the city dominating the highway from Damascus, used to resupply remaining government forces in the eastern province of Deir ez Zour, would suggest that defeat there was not part of any twisted Syrian regime plan. And it wasn’t just ancient monuments that were lost. Tadmur has what may be the largest arms depot in Syria and a major airbase that is now out of the Assad regime’s reach.

For ISIS commanders, as for their resurgent rebel foes in the Army of Conquest, the question is likely the same now: Should they consolidate gains or press on with expansionary offensives against a reeling, hard-pressed Syrian government? The smart move for ISIS would be to consolidate, smooth out the front lines and oust the isolated government forces left in Deir ez Zour. This is what Joshua Landis, who runs the Syria Comment blog and is a professor at the University of Oklahoma, suspects ISIS will do. “Deir is presumed to be next big push,” he tweeted in the hours after the fall of Palmyra.

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But caution doesn’t appear to be in the ISIS gene. Time and again the group has used force mobility despite U.S. surveillance and airstrikes to undertake the riskier course, opening up new fronts to wrong-foot opponents. Jonathan Schanzer, an analyst with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, says the jihadis “need to continue to conquer territory in order to survive.” He adds: “Pillage, plunder, and tax is how the group generates income for itself. If it ceases to do so, it will find itself with dwindling resources, particularly as the U.S. targets its oil fields and other assets.”

“The Syrian regime, while currently on its heels, is about to get a massive cash injection from Iran when the nuclear deal goes through,” argues the FFD’s Schanzer. “Iran is set to receive roughly $120 billion in cash. A portion of that will undoubtedly go to Syria, which Iran views as its 35th province.”

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