The State of the Chávez-Capriles Race, Or Is Hope Springing in Venezuela?

Unnoticed by many, there is another crucial election taking place in our hemisphere this fall–this Sunday in fact. Fourteen-year incumbent president Hugo Chávez (who re-wrote the Venezuelan constitution to allow him to run for unlimited terms of office–in effect to become President for Life) is facing off against former Mariana province governor Enrique Capriles Rodanski. Given Chávez’ legendarily tight grip on his country’s failing democracy, many have considered the race a farce–a foregone conclusion that might satisfy the Carter Center but would fool no one else. It would in effect be the death knell for freedom in Venezuela.

Yet it turns out that democracy might not be as tender of a flower as we have thought.

Mr. Capriles, despite facing dauntingly unequal access to airtime and the relentless persecution of both himself and his campaign operatives (three were shot by Chavista thugs last week), has captured the public imagination. Young and energetic, he makes a stark contrast with the ailing Mr. Chávez , whose weakened state makes his standard campaign shtick–cavorting onstage, singing to the moon–a sort of danse macabre. More importantly, Mr. Capriles offers a new sort of political platform, one that combines Chávez more popular social programs (reformed and vetted for corruption) with a return to the free market principles that were the original basis of Venezuela’s prosperity. His message is resonating, and while polls in Venezuela are not exactly reliable, the gap with Chávez is narrowing and some even show the challenger ahead (see the numbers at the end of this article). Clearly the two headed to a close race on Sunday, and there is a real chance of an upset.

Why, you may ask, should this be of consuming interest to the United States? The Middle East is on fire and we are facing bleak times at home. While it would be nice to have Chavez gone and basic freedoms restored to Venezuelans, should this really be a high priority?

Yes it should, for several reasons Mr. Capriles articulated this week. He has started to talk about his foreign policy, and has pledged to mend the tattered relationship with our close ally Colombia, which would be a great help in finally eradicating the troublesome terrorist groups Mr. Chavez has funded on the Venezuela-Colombia border for so long. In addition, Mr. Capriles has indicated he would distance himself from the close relationship Mr. Chávez has forged with Iran over the last decade. This would be a massive gain for the United States as Venezuela has served as a financial clearing house for Iran, helping it evade the economic sanctions we hope will deter its nuclear ambitions. In addition, there are unsavory reports that Chávez has been allowing Iranian Hezbollah proxies to train on Margarita Island–an activity that could have grave security consequences for the United States.

In addition, Mr. Capriles’ election stands to have a very positive effect on all of us: it could make a meaningful reduction in gas prices. As the Financial Times reports today, Mr. Capriles proposes to double Venezuela’s oil output as part of his 100 day manifesto, an increase that would have a substantial impact on crude prices. And he would do it in a business-friendly way that would bring more prosperity and industry reinvestment to Venezuela. 

It should be born in mind that Mr. Capriles may not be a perfect ally–he is certainly center-left, not a right-wing candidate, but his positives hugely outweigh his negatives, and a number of them have highly-desirable ramifications for the United States. And his election should give us all hope that amid the missteps and disappointments we have witnessed in the progress of democracy around the globe over the past few years, this story can still have a happy ending. Even after a fourteen-year starvation diet, democracy is alive in Venezuela, and may only require the spark of this election to flourish again.

Victoria Coates is an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.