The Islamic State of Libya Isn’t Much of a State

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Thomas Joscelyn, senior editor of the Long War Journal, which focuses on U.S. counterterrorism efforts, said the Islamic State “has been primarily drawing from young recruits who have fought in Iraq and Syria and are coming back to Libya and who have basically drunk the Islamic State Kool-Aid.”

The Islamic State now has self-declared provinces in Tripoli, the southwest region of Fezzan, and the eastern region of Barqa, which includes the cities of Benghazi and Derna. Although the group is getting stronger inside Libya, Joscelyn said its strength is sometimes overstated. He noted that it does not control all of Derna, where rival groups like the Abu Salim Martyrs Brigade still play a major role.

“These zones are more aspirational than they are real,” Joscelyn said. “They want to give people the sense that the caliphate is growing.”

He said that though groups with links to al Qaeda aren’t grabbing attention with grisly videos, they are using more subtle power plays to expand the group’s influence on the ground.

“It leads to an overestimate of the Islamic State and an underestimate of al Qaeda and al Qaeda-linked groups,” Joscelyn said.
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