October 16, 2017 | Qutoed by Tom DiChristopher - CNBC
Trump’s plan for the Iran nuclear deal comes with huge risks and puts the accord ‘on life support’
The historic 2015 Iran nuclear deal is “on life support” and hanging on “by a thread” after the Trump administration plotted a new course for containing Tehran, analysts warn.
President Donald Trump on Friday refused to certify the accord to Congress. He instead asked lawmakers to toughen the agreement, negotiated between Iran and six world powers, by amending a U.S. law. At the same time, the administration will try to convince European leaders to impose new sanctions on Tehran and return to the negotiating table.
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The key to the red lines is determining the U.S. objective and calibrating them to achieve that objective, according to Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank that backs a tougher line on Tehran.
If the goal is to deny Iran the capability to develop a certain type of ballistic missile, then the red lines must be strong enough to dissuade Iran from carrying out multiple tests, he said. That denies Iran the data it needs to eventually build a successful missile.
“Honestly, it is going to be quite challenging, but it's going to require a whole of government approach” including Congress, the White House, and defense and intelligence agencies, Taleblu said.
Trump's diplomatic 'malpractice'
Similarly, the administration must get its European partners to agree to a shared set of goals and strategy, according to Taleblu. France has signaled its willingness to pressure Iran, and Britain could be the key to overcoming German intransigence, he notes. Meanwhile, Iran will surely be courting Europe as the Continent's corporations prepare to re-enter the Iranian market.
“We have to beat Tehran to Brussels,” he said, referring to the headquarters of the European Union.
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