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Political Instability in Egypt

FEBRUARY 2011

  • President Hosni Mubarak is 82 years old and in poor health. A change in leadership is bound to take place relatively soon.
  • Since the 1952 military coup, all power has been in the hand of the president, but new power centers have emerged in recent months.
  • The President’s son, Gamal Mubarak, is vying for power with the support of the business community.
  • Egypt’s State Security (SS), an organ of the ministry of Interior, is responsible for maintaining the day-to-day authoritarian structures of the states.
  • The military, the backbone of the regime since the 1952 coup, is also vying for power.
  • The ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) is made up of the “old guard” and is the face of the regime.
  • If Mubarak steps down or passes away, it is unclear whether these groups will cooperate or clash.
  • The political opposition is in basic agreement on the need for political reforms to secure basic liberties regarding freedom of speech, assembly and right to create parties.
  • These reforms will be critical to ensure a peaceful transfer of power through the ballot box and respect of all political ideologies that adhere to democracy.
  • Former IAEA chief and Egypt reform advocate Mohamed Elbaradei wants to act as a catalyst for political reform.  He does not belong to any of the aforementioned power structures.
  • The Muslim Brotherhood, a popular Islamist movement that is banned from political activity, expressed its support to ElBaradei’s principles.
  • Secular reform groups have also backed ElBaradei’s reforms.
  • The Brotherhood and the secular Wafd party boycotted the 2010 legislative elections.  Their demands are the same as those of the rest of the opposition: reform.
  • Without reform, radicalization will continue to be a chronic problem, and the regime will continue to suppress unrest by force.
  • Stability through oppression will not prepare Egypt for what is expected to be a difficult transition.
  • Any scenario that does not include the reasonable demands of the opposition with regard to political reform could yield instability.