Analysis & Commentary
U.S. To Ease Sanctions On Software
Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, called Monday's decision a very important interagency policy statement by the administration, and the first time it has provided "material support for the pro-democracy Green Movement" in Iran - "the only thing that has so far rattled the regime."
"Support for the Green Movement - through the provision of critical communications technology combined with crippling energy sanctions - may well be too little too late to throttle the regime's nuclear aspirations," he said. "But we are fooling ourselves if we believe that what we've done so far will stop the Islamic republic's quest for the bomb."
For years, Tehran's nuclear program has been a source of tensions with the West, which fears that Iran is trying to build a weapon under the disguise of a civilian effort. Mr. Dubowitz said Iran was more willing to negotiate following the massive protests after the disputed presidential election in June.
"Now is the time for President Obama to rally Americans and Europeans to the cause of Iranian democracy," he said. If the regime manages "to crush the opposition, we will have lost an enormous opportunity to bring some normality and hope to the Middle East."
Read the article here.
U.S. to Turkey: We Won’t Take Action on Syria
Clinton rejected proposals offered by Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu during a meeting last month, Turkish and U.S. sources recently told Tony Badran, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
U.S. Transfers Last Detainee to Iraqi Custody
The United States has previously sought Daqduq's extradition in order to try him before a military commission, LongWarJournal's Bill Roggio reported last May.
U.S. Will Use Banks To Thwart Iran Nukes
Jonathan Schanzer, a former Treasury Department intelligence analyst and vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, warned that the task force is not a regulatory body.
"Even though the task force has put them on notice, whether the other countries, including China, will follow their word and do something about this is another matter, and it remains to be seen. The jury is out."
Read the article here.
U.S., Allies Seek to Maintain Arab Support for Military Intervention in Libya
Yet, it remains politically difficult for many Arab states to use force against another Muslim country or to publicly side with Western powers in an attack on another Arab leader — even one as unpopular in the Arab world as Gaddafi, said Clifford May, president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank.
“On the one hand, they find Gaddafi a menace and an embarrassment,” May said, “and on the other hand, some are afraid that the same arguments being used to take down Gaddafi could be used against their own regimes.”
The full article is available here.
U.S., Europe Target Iran Investment, Trade
Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the European sanctions, depending on how the final language is crafted, "could be consequential" because a loophole in existing sanctions allows the transfer of technology and engineering services.
Read the article here.
U.S.-UK Relations Strained Over Torture of Innocents
Unlike the British media, which has prominently reported American torture, most American citizens remain blissfully unaware of the severity of the torture inflicted in their name upon detainees who later proved to be innocent. Much of the U.S. mainstream media have limited their coverage to the propaganda of Bush-era apparatchiks, who continue to claim - despite all evidence - that everyone at Guantanamo was among the "worst of the worst." For example, the neo-conservative Thomas Joscelyn of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Front Page Magazine of Binyam Muhamad: "First, both Mohamed and his lawyer have conceded that he trained at al Qaeda's al Farouq camp in Afghanistan."
UK, EU Lobby To Protect Key Azeri Gas Project From Iran Sanctions
Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the December U.K. delegation in Washington was comprised of members of the Treasury, the foreign office and of the cabinet office, which coordinates UK policies of the Prime minister and the other ministries.
UN Aftermath Creates Ripple Effect Across Campus
“We also hosted Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, who spoke on the Palestinian UN statehood bid," she continued. "We are continuing to hold events showcasing what Israel has done to achieve peace and what it continues to do.”
UN and the Kofi Annan years
As the year 2006 winds up, one thing that is sure to remain engraved in the memory of political writers especially on the black continent of Africa is the departure from the exalted position of the Secretary-General of the United Nations of one of Africa's most accomplished diplomats, Kofi Annan.
UN Bureaucrats and Muslim Brotherhood Poised to Fill Egypt’s Leadership Vacuum
Suleiman’s role becomes that much more crucial now that he’ll have to guide a transitional period fraught with dangerous scenarios. The two riskiest, according to Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, are a “disorderly collapse” and holding elections too soon.
A disorderly collapse, Schanzer said, leaves a vacuum in a period of great unrest and chaos. And holding elections too soon—such as the scheduled elections in September—would virtually ensure the Muslim Brotherhood’s success.
“The Brotherhood are potentially the best mobilized to take control,” Schanzer said. “As opposed to all the other opposition groups that have languished under the Mubarak era and have not been allowed to really gain strength.”
The practical solution, according to Schanzer, is to postpone elections perhaps another year, and give the other political groups a chance to “level the playing field.” After that, a democratic Egypt could—possibly—emerge.
The full article is available here.
UN Complicit in Corruption of Iraq’s Oil-for-Food Program
A humanitarian crisis loomed in Iraq in 1995, five years after sanctions were imposed as a result of Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait and his flouting of United Nations Security Council resolutions.
UN Mission in Syria Faces Criticism
For some anti-Assad activists, those aren’t enough to successfully overturn the regime. Ammar Abdulhamid, a Damascus-born activist serving as a fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
United States, Libya Sign Historic Pact on Military Cooperation
The United States and Libya have signed a historic pact on defense cooperation, moving closer to normalizing diplomatic ties after years of strained relations.
The non-binding agreement, inked in January at the Pentagon, signals the two countries now have military-to-military relations and will work together in fields of mutual interest such as peacekeeping, maritime security, counterterrorism and African security and stability, said Theresa Whelan, deputy assistant secretary of defense for African affairs.
The memorandum of understanding states that U.S. and Libyan officials will exchange information on defense and security matters, a second Defense Department official familiar with the document told Inside the Pentagon. It also allows both parties to discuss the sale of military equipment but does not outline specific items, he explained.
For Libya, this is the equivalent of a presidential determination, Whelan told ITP in a Feb. 27 interview. "That's what they wanted. . . . If they had asked us for some sort of binding treaty relationship, we'd probably be in a different spot," she said.
While the pact frames the military-related activities the United States and the African country want to undertake, "It doesn't define that Libya will do this or Libya will do that," Whelan asserted, adding the department is unsure whether it will hold bilateral meetings.
The agreement, however, is "quite historic" in a broad political sense, she contended.
"When it was signed in early January, we all sort of paused in amazement at how things had changed," Whelan recalled. "I mean, here we had Libyan officers and senior defense and foreign affairs officials inside the Pentagon, and we were signing a memorandum of understanding about how we were going to be buds. And that's. . . not an insignificant historical point.
"Interestingly enough and amusingly enough, there are still a few Libyan officers who remember coming to the United States for training. They would have been training in the '60s and maybe the early '70s. But that would have probably been the last time," she said.
Relations between Libya and the United States began to sour soon after a group of Libyan army officers called the Revolutionary Command Council, and led by today's President Col. Moammar Gadhafi, overthrew the king and proclaimed the country an Arab republic in 1969, according to the State Department. Gadhafi forced the United States to withdraw from Wheelus Airfield in Tripoli. The U.S. government then nixed agreements with Libya regarding military assistance, economic aid, technical cooperation, duty-free entry of relief supplies and development assistance in 1972.
Now that the MOU has been signed, Whelan told ITP she anticipates foreign military sales between the countries based on previous conversations with the Libyan government. "The Libyans, actually, I think they have a case in for humvees, and I think that's with [the Defense Security Cooperation Agency] right now for processing." She described the humvees as "the biggest-ticket item" the Libyans are considering.
Last summer, Libyan government officials expressed interest in U.S. military equipment during a visit to the agency but officially requested only humvees, agency spokesman Charles Taylor told ITP. He had no details about the actual number of vehicles sought or any other items Libya may want.
"However, there are some bugs in the request," Taylor said. "We're still trying to work out details, and we're a long way from actually making that happen. They're interested in a lot of different stuff. But as it stands right now, they're only authorized to purchase non-lethal equipment from us."
The delay in finalizing a humvee sale has to do with technical issues in "getting the systems to mesh," including financial and acquisition processes, Taylor explained. "A lot of the countries that we've been dealing with in the past, they have these systems in place. They understand how we do business, so it's a lot easier to make those kinds of transactions. Now realize we haven't done business with Libya in about 35 years."
Libya's primary focus, however, is an outstanding issue revolving around C-130 aircraft "purchased before we cut them off," Whelan said. "The C-130s, they've been sitting here in the United States for whatever it is, 30 years. Because of the break in relations, they were never delivered." But it is unclear whether the planes can even be refurbished, she said. "Clearly, I think they want additional transport aircraft, and the question just is what do we do with this old case?" Taylor was unsure about the status of the aircraft.
At press time (March 4), Libya's ambassador to the United States, Ali Aujali, was traveling and could not be reached for comment. In a interview last June about the planned defense agreement, Aujali told ITP that his country saw the appeal of American technology, training and equipment. He also said that Libya aims to create "real interest" between the two countries through this MOU. With only political engagement the relationship will be fragile, he said. He added he hopes to build a friendship based on a broader foundation of military, cultural, economic, trade-related and technological ties (ITP, June 19, 2008, p1).
Peter Pham, director of the Nelson Institute for International and Public Affairs at James Madison University in Harrisonburg, VA, told ITP he had not reviewed the MOU in detail, but the issues discussed seem to "go beyond, if you will, the absolute, bare-minimum agreement" between countries and cover "substantive issues."
Discussions began on the MOU in late 2006, a Joint Staff official told ITP in 2008, but last year's election campaign sidetracked the signing of the agreement.
A similar deal with Angola is also in the works. (See related story.)
The scope of the U.S.-Libyan pact is not surprising given that the two nations have cooperated on terrorism-related issues in the last few years, and that Libya plays an important role in African immigration to Europe, consequently raising the concerns of "our allies in the Mediterranean" about maritime security, said Pham, a sub-Saharan Africa expert who has testified before Congress on U.S. Africa Command. Would-be African migrants use Libya as a conduit to Europe.
A bare-bones defense agreement, in contrast, typically would address "access for defense attachés, [and] basic exchanges of information," he said. Very few African countries have bare-bones MOUs with the United States that reflect "minimal courtesies," he added, citing Zimbabwe and Sudan to a certain extent.
Herman Cohen, former assistant secretary of State for Africa, described the agreement as significant considering that the United States has long seen Libya as "a disruptive force, a supporter of terrorist acts in not only Africa and the Middle East, but also in Ireland. . . . [and a] supporter of revolution." Libya was also responsible for the Dec. 21, 1988, bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland.
"Now they have decided to be a responsible country that's seeking to engage in conflict resolution, support multilateral efforts to stabilize other countries," said Cohen, president of Cohen & Woods International based in Washington. The consulting firm offers strategic planning services to African and Middle Eastern governments and multinational corporations doing business in these regions. "So, I think they are in effect becoming a partner" to the United States, Europe and others seeking more stability in Africa, he said.
Last year, Libya deposited $1.5 billion in a U.S. account for compensation of victims of Libyan terrorism, including those killed and injured in the La Belle Discotheque bombing in Berlin.
"Libya's full payment of the claims settlement ends the years of waiting for compensation for the victims and their families of the Pan Am bombing, the La Belle Discotheque bombing in Berlin, and other Libyan-sponsored acts of terrorism," Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said last October. "This payment removes a major obstacle to an improvement of U.S.-Libyan relations although there are other outstanding issues."
Forty years after Gadhafi's revolution, the United States has also recently taken part in a meeting in Tripoli, dubbed the "council of colonels," Whelan told ITP. American and Libyan officers discussed "cooperative opportunities" and got "a little bit more detail about what is it that we might be interested in doing together. And I think this is going to be the classic military crawl, walk, run approach. And I think each side is rediscovering the other to a certain extent. And so we'll slowly sort of develop ideas for how we can continue to advance the relationship."
Last week's meeting organized by AFRICOM, however, is unlikely to qualify as "anything of any note," she said. The outcome will be a basic information exchange, she said. Given the way the Libyan system works, "I don't think that anyone was going to be running out and agreeing that the U.S. and Libya are going to do this, that or the other thing." The U.S. government held a similar meeting with the South Africans in 1994 once it re-established relations after two decades, she added.
At the meeting, U.S. officials agreed to engage the Libyans "in a couple of areas" that fall under the MOU, the second Pentagon official said. The Libyan colonels attending the meeting asked about "opportunities within our professional military education system," this official told ITP, but the Libyans made "no commitment one way or another." He declined to be more specific, citing "sensitivities on the Libyan side."
U.S. officers based at AFRICOM and within its component commands, as well as representatives from Washington, took part in the meeting.
Unlikely Revolutionaries
"I think it's terrific," says Michael Ledeen, at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, who has distinguished himself as one of the few in the capital who has argued that the opposition was able, or willing, to bring down the Iranian regime. "Richard had an awful lot invested in making a deal with the regime, so I take my hat off to him for saying I changed my mind."
Unmasked Men
Leaked Iraqi intelligence documents connect Saddam Hussein to prominent terror leaders, including Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Osama bin Laden. Only question is, when will John Kerry change his stump speech?
Walid Phares thumbed a sheaf of documents, all in Arabic and nearly all bearing the spherical slogan of Iraq's intelligence service, or Mukhabarat. The Middle East scholar, a Lebanese-American Christian who speaks four languages and is a recognized expert on Islamic militants and terrorism, has interrupted a sick day (prior engagement with a root canal) in order to evaluate 42 just-leaked intelligence documents confiscated by U.S. forces in Iraq.
Unrest in Central Asia: Freedom’s Shining Hour?
March 24 saw the storming of Bishkek's 'Winter Palace' inaugurating what oppositionists there have called the 'tulip' revolution. This is a nod to Georgia's rose and Ukraine's orange revolutions, which saw the ouster of admittedly corrupt authoritarian regimes (Kuchma's chosen successor Yanukovitch and Georgia's Shevardnadze).
