Analysis & Commentary
A New Weapon in the War on Terror
Yet the civilian toll appears to be dropping. Two independent tallies, drawing on the same sources, differ on the toll (mainly because of varying definitions of "civilian"). But both agree it has fallen dramatically. Bill Roggio, editor of LongWarJournal.org, reckons civilian deaths have fallen from 43 in 2009 to 10 this year. Peter Bergen of the New America Foundation thinks as many as 300 civilians may have been killed in 2009, but only 55 this year. (A government estimate puts the number much lower--about 30 total since 2008.) Why the drop? Five Defense Department, counterterror, and industry sources, talking on background because of the sensitivity of the issue, point to better intelligence about targets, more cautious controls on strikes, and what one Pentagon official calls "a new generation of weapons." Instead of being equipped with only one rocket, the Predator drones used in the strikes can now be outfitted with smaller, specialized munitions, the sources say.
Read the article here.
A Peak Inside Saudi Social Media
The Foundation for the Defense of Democracy released an unprecedented survey yesterday of the Saudi social media sphere—a vast space on Twitter, Facebook, and a host of blogs, message boards, and mobile applications.
A Persian Prison State
As noted by Mark Dubowitz in Tuesday's National Post, Iran imports 40% of its gasoline, and trade sanctions may provide an effective instrument of last resort, as they did against apartheid-era South Africa and Libya. At the very least, such sanctions would be less perilous than military intervention, which would only undermine the movement within Iran toward freedom and democracy.
Read the article here.
A Pirate’s Party Life
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, director of the Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington, makes an excellent point in today's Christian Science Monitor.
A symbiotic relationship has developed between the pirates and the Shebab Islamist organization that controls Somalia.
Though the two groups do not seem to have an ideological link, Gartenstein-Ross, says pirates pay "taxes" to Islamists in order to avoid having their havens shut down.
More worrisome still, Gartenstein-Ross thinks a link has developed between Shebab and Al Qaeda.
"If you take the communications we know exist between the two, add Al Qaeda's stated hope of bankrupting the global economy, and mix in the devastating impact of a skyrocketing price of oil because of some dramatic act of piracy against oil tankers, you see why we could wake up some day wishing we'd done a lot more to stop the Somali pirates."
Read the article here.
A Prosecutor Who Didn’t Back Down
Special prosecutor Patrick J. Fitzgerald lived up to his billing as a hard-nosed U.S. attorney when he pressed for the jailing of a reporter who refused to testify in his investigation into the leak of a CIA agent's name. But his action just as likely was spurred by the unique fact-finding mission given special prosecutors, legal observers and those who have worked with Fitzgerald in the past said Thursday.
A Prosecutor’s Long Run May Point to Partisan Politics
When David Kelley became Manhattan's top federal prosecutor in December 2003, he knew the job was temporary. President Bush had just rewarded U.S. Attorney James Comey, a Republican, with the no. 2 job at the Department of Justice, but Mr. Kelley, a Democrat, was told not to expect a permanent appointment, sources said last week.
A Rare Expression of Regret
Vatican City - Papal apologies have been few and far between, mostly confined to correcting historical errors such as condemning Galileo for maintaining that the Earth is not the center of the universe or asking forgiveness for the sins of Christians over the centuries.
So Pope Benedict's declaration that he was "deeply sorry" regarding his remarks on Islam and violence -- in which he quoted from a medieval text that characterized some teachings of Islam's founder as "evil and inhuman" and referred to spreading Islam "by the sword" -- was an extraordinary expression of regret, a rare personal post-mortem by the leader of the Roman Catholic Church. Not even Benedict's predecessor, John Paul II, who made the "purification of memory" a tenet of his papacy, came close to issuing personal regrets.
A Region in Rebellion
According to Jonathan Schanzer, former U.S. Treasury intelligence analyst and current Vice President of Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a bi-partisan think tank that studies terrorist groups and their ideologies, “Each country has its own dynamics, but each country is advocating, or agitating, for democracy; [they] have not been allowed to breathe the oxygen of democracy for decades.”
The military responses to that push for democracy have varied. In Egypt, despite initial clashes between police and protesters, the military decided to abandon its aging dictator, refraining from firing upon its own people. Mubarak, who had ruled with an iron fist for 30 years, stepped down, and the military stepped in to fill the void. While the military’s motivations and intentions are still unclear, it appears that there has been extensive communication between U.S. military/intelligence personnel and Egyptian officers, the result of a long-term relationship. “The conventional wisdom in Washington is that [in the past] we’ve been paying off the military; the number that’s been thrown around is 1.3 billion [per year]. Total aid [to Egypt] is closer to two billion, but most of it goes to the military,” Schanzer said. “Our Department of Defense has good ties with The Officers Corps in the Egyptian military. We provide the F-15’s and M-1 tanks, the training and the spare parts, and we helped to groom their military.” That relationship, according to American officials, allowed U.S. military personnel to communicate with Egyptian military officers behind the scenes and encourage them not to fire on the Egyptian people. But that influence only goes so far. As of February 18, Egyptian military leaders were not going along with current recommendations by Obama to end emergency rule. ...
In other areas of the Middle East the noise of revolt is muted, but there is still turbulence. “The Syrians are squeezing real hard, making it difficult for the protesters to make it into the street. The West Bank has been quiet, but the government there has just called for elections, sensing that they may be under fire just like everyone else,” Schanzer said. “Jordan is a kinder, gentler monarchy, but it’s certainly still a monarchy, and the king calls all the shots, so right now, Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is out in the region, and just had meetings with the King,” Schanzer continued. “But the King is under pressure from [Jordan’s] branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, and he may have to start making reforms, but even [on February 18] there were clashes in the Hashemite Kingdom, over lack of reform.”
The full article is available here.
A Shabaab Commander’s Terrible, Terrible Rap Song
Bill Roggio has the audio recording over at the Long War Journal. (Thanks Daveed Gartenstein-Ross for the link.) Let's just say Lil Wayne doesn't have much to worry about (or Julian Assange for that matter).
The full article is available here.
A Shadow in the Suburbs
Authorities insist that terrorism is not limited to one faith or nationality. But of the 131 people involved in U.S. radicalization cases between 2001 and 2010, “nearly all the domestically radicalized terrorists have been Muslims or converts to Islam,” a recent RAND Corporation report found. The threat of Muslim sleeper cells is very real. It was less than a year ago that Faisal Shahzad, a Pakistani-American and naturalized U.S. citizen, tried to blow up Times Square. Shahzad fit the mold of a homegrown radical intent on “microterrorism”—plots inspired by, but executed outside the purview of, terrorist groups like al-Qaeda. Yet, often these apparent lone wolfs have more connections than it appears. “Shahzad wasn’t a guy who just self-radicalized and got his information over the Internet,” says Bill Roggio, a Medford resident and editor of The Long War Journal, which chronicles the war on terror. “He traveled overseas, he got training in al-Qaeda’s camps, and he had a support network here.”
The full article is available here.
A Syrian Resistance Leader’s Plea to the World
The Syrian revolution has taken place as a long-delayed response to the misery and helplessness visited upon the Syrian people by a narrow authoritarian clique that treated the country as its own private fiefdom.
A Top Insurgent in Afghanistan Killed, Coalition Confirms
The Long War Journal, which provides reports and analyses on present-day warfare in Afghanistan and elsewhere, said in a report Tuesday that Kunar province, which sits on the border with Pakistan, "is a known sanctuary for al Qaeda and allied terror groups." It said al Qaeda cells have been detected in eight of Kunar's 15 districts. ...
Bill Roggio, managing editor of Long War Journal, said in Tuesday's report that "ISAF has admitted that al Qaeda has a significant presence in Afghanistan." ...
ISAF says coalition forces in the last month have killed more than 25 leaders and fighters in al Qaeda, which includes many foreign fighters. The Long War Journal said ISAF has killed or captured six top al Qaeda commanders and operatives in Kunar since September. ...
Roggio, the managing editor of Long War Journal, said Abdul Ghani's real name is Saleh Naiv Almakhlvi Day, and he has been wanted by the Saudi government.
ISAF said Abdul Ghani had been meeting with a senior al Qaeda operative named Waqas when the airstrike occurred, and Roggio said Waqas is from Pakistan.
Roggio writes that despite al Qaeda's presence, American troops have "abandoned several combat outposts in Kunar and the neighboring province of Nuristan after major attacks on remote bases."
"U.S. Army commanders said that the outposts were closed or turned over to Afghan forces as part of a new counterinsurgency strategy to secure population centers. U.S. officials also claimed the U.S. presence in these remote valleys created the conditions for a local insurgency, and that the locals would cease fighting after U.S. forces left," Roggio said.
"The withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Korengal and Pech river valleys in Kunar has created more space for al Qaeda and the Taliban to expand their operations in the region."
The full article is available here.
A U.N. Vote: A Loss for Israel and a Humiliation for the U.S.
I spoke this morning with Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday. Before his testimony he went to the Middle East to glean information about the upcoming vote and the reaction of Palestinians to the potential for U.N. recognition of Palestinian statehood in some form.
A US Pipeline for Jihad in Somalia?
Little is known about how Al Shabab recruits fighters. But experts say there's a high level of organization in its efforts - from identifying recruits to transportation to fundraising.
"Not only do you have recruiters, but you have a recruiting network that is sophisticated," says Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and author of "My Year Inside Radical Islam." "In most [radicalization] cases, I can't say that there is a formal recruitment network.... There seems to be more of a formal structure in place to get young people out to Somalia."
Read the article here.
A Victory Over Terrorist Media
The Treasury Department struck a blow against one branch of Iran's propaganda network on Thursday, designating Hezbollah's al Manar satellite television operation as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist organization. The designation prohibits transactions between Americans and U.S. entities and al Manar, and freezes any assets al Manar may have under American jurisdiction. It constitutes a huge victory for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the Coalition Against Terrorist Media, an organization founded by FDD in an effort to press foreign governments to impose sanctions against al Manar and to discourage satellite providers from carrying it.
Al Manar had hoped to stave off the designation as a terrorist entity by framing criticism of its connection to Hezbollah as an effort to deprive it of its First Amendment rights. But as the Treasury Department made clear, the issue is not al Manar's role as a television station but its role in facilitating the activities of Hezbollah, an organization that has killed more Americans than every other terrorist group save al Qaeda.
"Any entity maintained by a terrorist group -- whether masquerading as a charity, a business or a media outlet -- is as culpable as the terrorist group itself," said Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Stuart Levey. The Treasury Department cited an incident in which an al Manar employee carried out operational surveillance for Hezbollah while acting under cover of employment by al Manar.
Moreover, the organization has supported Hezbollah's fundraising and recruitment efforts, and Hezbollah-affiliated charities have aired commercials on al Manar, providing bank account numbers for donations. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah publicized an invitation for all Lebanese citizens to volunteer for Hezbollah military training on al Manar. And in addition to supporting Hezbollah, Treasury said, "al Manar has also provided support to other designated terrorist organizations, including the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, notably transferring tens of thousands of dollars for a PIJ-controlled charity."
It should also be pointed out that, since the war in Iraq began three years ago, al Manar has specialized in depicting American soldiers as war criminals. The Treasury Department gets it right: Al Manar is a propaganda arm of the Islamofascists who are fighting against the United States.
A Week of Blowing in the Wind
The Nobel Peace Prize
Today, bloggers are reacting to an Op-Ed in The Washington Post opining that it would be unconstitutional for Mr. Obama to accept the prize, saying it would violate the emolument clause. Emolument: Let that be our Word of the Day.
Ronald D. Rotunda, a professor at Chapman University Law School, and J. Peter Pham, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, write:
There is no doubt that the Nobel Peace Prize is an "emolument" ("gain from employment or position," according to Webster).
An opinion of the U.S. attorney general advised, in 1902, that "a simple remembrance," even "if merely a photograph, falls under the inclusion of ‘any present of any kind whatever.' " President Clinton's Office of Legal Counsel, in 1993, reaffirmed the 1902 opinion, and explained that the text of the clause does not limit "its application solely to foreign governments acting as sovereigns." This opinion went on to say that the emolument clause applies even when the foreign government acts through instrumentalities. Thus the Nobel Prize is an emolument, and a foreign one to boot.
A Window for Extremism?
“When the Brotherhood has had the opportunity to become the rulers of a government, we’ve seen drastic changes in policy,” said Jonathan Schanzer, former U.S. Treasury intelligence analyst and current Vice President of Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The Brotherhood took control of the Sudanese government in 1989. “That government then went on to effectively engage in genocide, support terrorism, and host Al Qaeda, so obviously that is extremely dangerous,” he said.
The Muslim Brotherhood, however, is a complex group. According to Rafael Reuveny, a professor from the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University, “The Brotherhood itself is not monolithic, and has several factions inside it. Some factions are extreme, like the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, but many factions are much more benign.” As an example Schanzer cited Turkey, where "...the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, is now in power and is aligned with the Brotherhood, but does not overtly support terrorism." Currently in Egypt, the Brotherhood is part of a council redrafting the Egyptian constitution, and anti-government groups are allowing that process to go forward.
While unrest has abated in Egypt, Libya's volatile situation may push the embattled Qaddafi to employ extremist groups as part of his strategy to retain power. Unlike Mubarak, “Qaddafi has been supporting terrorism with reckless abandon for most of his 42 years in power,” Schanzer said. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, Qaddafi supported Yasser Arafat in the creation of Black September, a terror apparatus responsible for the kidnapping and murder of eleven Israeli athletes and officials, the 1972 Munich Massacre, and the killing of a U.S. ambassador in Sudan. In his own country, however, Qadaffi has had to deal with the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), an al Qaeda affiliate, which has threatened his regime. “The LIFG has been the basis for cooperation between the US and Libya for the last decade, because it simultaneously supported the Al Qaeda network and also threatened Qaddafi’s regime,” Schanzer said. “However, I think there are questions now as to whether the LIFG could be bought off or used by Qaddafi."
Unlike Egypt and Libya, in Saudi Arabia the noise of unrest has been kept to a low volume. “There were protests and arrests," Schanzer noted, “but in the end the Saudi administration said they received clerical approval to clamp down on protesters. They televised it, and a potential protest movement virtually evaporated.” The outside influence of Iran also weighs heavily on Saudi Arabia's stability. “Iran has aspirations for regional leadership. There have been reports that there is jockeying,” Schanzer added. "Al Qaeda has a strong presence in Saudi and Iran supports al Qaeda, so to me it seems that the unrest may involve forces that are called terrorist."
Bahrain, a strategic ally of the United States, also faces the specter of a meddlesome Iran. “The U.S. and Saudi are afraid of the Bahrain situation being exploited by Iran. Saudi forces went in to Bahrain; Saudi is serving as a proxy of the United States, in my opinion. Saudi Arabia and the U.S. view the protests in Bahrain as Iranian attempts to get a foothold.”
Syria also must balance the duel concerns of a revolting populace and intensifying external pressures. The swelling grassroots unrest there has put the focus on Hamas' influence, with state security forces killing at least 15 protesters at a recent funeral rally. According to Reuveny, “[Syrian President] Assad may not have enough loyal forces, so he is asking for help from Palestinian terrorist organizations. Hamas Damascus is calling the shots. It’s been reported that Assad is asking for their help, and if they support him there will be a quid pro quo. The U.S. has been trying to wean Assad from its Iranian alliance, pushing Israel to give back the Golan Heights, but now Assad’s position is weaker and he needs allies.” And, as Schanzer points out, “Syria has been a state supporter of terrorism since 1979.”
All of the powers with interests in the region have been closely monitoring Yemen, which according to Schanzer, “looks like it’s next to topple, while President Ali Abdullah Saleh seems to be trying to negotiate an exit. That represents a more dangerous situation, because of the strength of Al Qaeda in Yemen.”
Towards the end of his interview, Reuveny connected the potential for increased extremism to roots that reach back several decades. Recognizing that the involvement of the West has been a factor in the political developments, he pointed to past American policies that have supported dictatorships and extremist organizations, including Mubarak and the Mujahideen in Afghanistan. “Had we not supported those regimes, then maybe we would not be in this position today, where we are facing this global movement of terrorist networks that no doubt will attack again,” Reuveny said. “What the president is now doing had to be done many years ago.” And Schanzer believes that the Obama administration must prioritize its efforts. “We need to determine which countries have the best chance at building a democracy, and try to support those protest movements as much as possible.”
The full article is available here.
Abbas Rejects US Corruption Allegations
The Palestinian Authority has received repeated warnings from the US not to pursue statehood recognition via the UN. Chairwoman of the US House Appropriations Foreign Operations Subcommittee, Republican Congresswoman Kay Granger recently sent a forceful message to President Abbas, telling him that “current and future aid will be jeopardized if you abandon direct negotiations and continue your efforts.”
ABCs of the CIA: A To-Do List For Porter Goss
TO: Porter Goss
