Analysis & Commentary
“A Systematic Refusal To View Our Enemies Plain”
I know Cliff has already mentioned this, but what a wonderful, compelling piece by Michael Ledeen in the Wall Street Journal yesterday. Required reading.
“A World Without America…” Can Ahmadinejad Achieve His Goal?
An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack would be triggered by a nuclear warhead detonated at high altitude over America. The resulting blast would create an EMP, a shockwave that could "cripple military and civilian communications, power, transportation, water, food, and other infrastructure" and potentially kill millions of Americans.
“Al Qaida’s TV” Won’t Replace al Jazeera, it is the Official Archive
Writing in the Washington Post, Daniel Williams announced that al Qaida has launched its own news bulletins via Internet. He referred it to an Italian news agency called Adnkonois, reporting from Dubai. He mentioned that the entire 16 minutes was available on an Italian web site. At first, one would be impressed by the news value of the "story." And indeed, in our current world of Global War on Terror, sensational pieces such as this one make headlines, inflame talking heads, and put writers on TV screens. If we agree that Terrorism and counter terrorism have produced an industry and consumers a headline such as "al Qaida has its own newscast now" will open ears and eyes and drag mouses to click on links. But let's examine where is the real meat in this story, with a comparative analysis..
“Book Browse” with Matt Gerson
International security situation
“C’è una generazione matura e democratica Ma laCia l’ha vista?”
InMedio Oriente è scattato il domino democratico ma l’Intelligence Usa è stata l’ultima ad accorgersene». Parola di Reuel Marc Gerecht, ex titolare del dossier Iran alla Cia ora in forza alla Fondazione per la difesa della democrazia diWashington.
Che opinione si è fatto di quanto sta avvenendo in Iran?
«L’Onda Verde del 2009 è viva e vegeta. Chi a Teheran pensava di averla sconfitta si sbagliava, quando una rivolta coinvolge decine dimigliaia di persone, forse di più, non è facile archiviarla senza affrontarne gli interrogativi. È però presto per dire se le ultime manifestazioni riusciranno amobilitare lemasse».
Perché l’Onda Verde è tornata a mostrarsi proprio adesso?
«Hanno visto cadere Hosni Mubarak in Egitto e hanno pensato, non senza ragione, che sono stati loro a innescare quanto sta avvenendo in più nazioni del MedioOriente».
Crede che sia in atto un domino democratico nella regione?
«È in pieno svolgimento».
Qual è la sua dinamica?
«È duplice. Anzitutto investe Paesi che hanno caratteristiche simili: carenza di libertà, repressione, problemi economici irrisolti e una nuova generazione che compone gran parte della popolazione. La miccia sono le informazioni, che corronomolto veloci, più di quanto avveniva anni fa».
Intende dire grazie a Internet?
«Non solo. A portare in milioni di case quanto avvenuto in Tunisia ed Egitto sono state Al Jazeera e Al Arabiya, due tv con grande seguito. Il resto lo ha fatto Internet conGoogle, Facebook,Twitter, le email. E c’è anche un terzo fattore: gli sms. Sono uno strumentomolto efficace per mobilitare. Neanche il regime può permettersi di bloccarli a lungo».
Come giudica la gestione da parte della Casa Bianca?
«Barack Obama è un presidente con una doppia identità, realista e idealista. Il realismo lo fa somigliare a George H. W. Bush, il presidente che fu capo della Cia ed era disposto ad accettare qualsiasi compromesso pur di far avanzare la propria agenda. Per Bush padre i valori americani non contavano. L’altra identità di Obama promuove tali valori, punta a espanderli, crede nella libertà e nella democrazia come diritto universale. Durante la crisi egiziana Obama ha oscillato fra queste due anime creando un po’ di confusione. Ma se l’effetto domino continuerà potrebbe essere la seconda ad avere il sopravvento».
Lei viene dall’Intelligence, come si spiega che il capo della Cia Leon Panetta ha sbagliato suMubarak?
«L’Intelligence americana ha sbagliato tutto quello che poteva sbagliare sull’effetto domino inMedioOriente».
A cosa si riferisce in particolare?
«Non ha previsto la Tunisia, ha sbagliato l’analisi sul dopo e quindi ha fatto previsioni errate sull’Egitto. Niente da stupirsi dunque se non ha indovinato l’effetto domino».
Da dove nascono tali errori?
«È una struttura elefantiaca, burocratica, dove osare significa andare incontro a conseguenze negative. L’intuizione non viene premiata e ciò restringe l’analisi, anche quando i fatti sono evidenti, come in Egitto. È troppo grande e poco agile».
Quale potrà essere la sorte dell’effetto domino?
«Ha già cambiato il Medio Oriente. L’interrogativo è quanto grandi saranno tali cambiamenti. L’errore più grave dell’Intelligence americana è stato di non accorgersi della maturazione di idee democratiche nelle nuove generazioni. È un processo in atto da anni. Ma non ci hanno voluto credere, rimanendo aggrappati all’immagine di unmondo arabo-musulmano congelato dai dittatori».
“Conflicts-of-Interest-R-Us”
Over at the United Nations "Conflicts-of-Interest-R-Us" world headquarters, there's a new twist on the former Oil-for-Food program for Iraq. Secretary General Kofi Annan has now decided that the U.N.-authorized investigation into Oil-for-Food, the "independent inquiry" headed by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, will be funded with money left over in the administrative account of...Oil-for-Food.
“Der Fall Libyen Hat Die Verhandlungen Mit Dem Iran Erschwert”
Emanuele Ottolenghi erfüllt fast alle Kriterien, die gemeinhin an einen "Hawk", einen politischen Falken US-amerikanischer Prägung, angelegt werden. Er befürwortet die Hegemonie Amerikas in der westlichen Welt
“Don’t Feed the Animals”
I spent part of my Independence Day enjoying New York's Central Park. I mention this in passing because there is a connection between my outing and the news I returned to my Upper West Side apartment to learn.
“Guilty ... as ORDERED”?
Naturally, I would never suggest that the New York Times stoops to a predetermined editorial narrative with which it proceeds, and toward which it slants news coverage, without a care in the world about what facts actually happen. But today's 'Guilty as Ordered' rant about the Hamdan military commission trial has to take the cake.
“He Ventured Forth to Bring Light to the World”
In the Times of London, Gerard Baker on the Messiah's roadtrip.
“Hell, No”—He’s Not Exonerated
In the epic United Nations Oil-for-Food scandal, we now have a moment of high farce, with what will surely be remembered as Kofi Annan's "Hell, no" press conference--named for the secretary general's belligerent answer on March 29 to a reporter who, quite appropriately, wondered if Annan shouldn't think about resigning sometime soon. The U.N.-authorized inquiry into Oil-for-Food wrongdoing, led by former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker, clocked in last Tuesday with its second interim report on a program now infamous as the biggest fraud in the history of humanitarian aid. That same afternoon, Annan summoned the media to the blue-curtained U.N. briefing room to announce his great relief at "this exoneration."
“Hitler Tamed by Prison. Released on Parole…”
No joke. In a terrific column on the seductive delusions of appeasement, Barry Rubin of Israel’s Gloria Center highlights the headline above, from an article published Dec. 21, 1924, in the New York Times. As Rubin notes, it sounds like satire. In fact, it sounds so much like satire that I double-checked in the Times archives. (Subscription only, but here it is). The Times described the paroled Hitler as “a much sadder and wiser man” expected to “retire to private life and return to Austria, the country of his birth.”
“Inside Hezbollah”
A look at the workings of Hezbollah.
“Iran’s CIVILIAN nuclear program”
Secretary of State Rice said the usual things about U.S. determination to defend our interests and allies as Iran continued test-firing missiles. The New York Times report comments (italics mine):
“Islamophobia”
If you haven’t discovered him yet, you should start paying attention to Pascal Bruckner, a French philosopher deeply involved in our current struggles. His recent book, The Tyranny of Guilt; an Essay on Western masochism, is a first-class analysis of how Western guilt over presumed past crimes has paralyzed us in the present, preventing us from doing the good works our instincts would normally produce. He’s quite right, and although much of his subject matter is European, his insights are as important for us as for his fellow Europeans.
“King of Kings” Gaddafi Tries to Flex Regional Muscles
‘‘CEN-SAD is virtually half the membership of the African Union but it doesn't have any clear regional focus like the (16 member) Economic Community Of West African States,'' says Dr. J. Peter Pham, a long-time observer of North Africa who serves as the Director of the Nelson Institute for International and Public Affairs at James Madison University in Virginia, U.S..
Read the article here.
“Lebanonization” and “Global Reach”
Quick, someone call Augustus Richard Norton to urge him to contest the following reports. For Norton has assured us over the years that Hezbollah has been "Lebanonized" and did not have "global reach." Or, as it has been put often, Hezbollah has "evolved" from what it used to be in the 80s. Right.
“Les Habits Neufs de L’antisémitisme en Europe”
C'est dans un véritable tour d'Europe de l'ignominie antisémite que nous conduit ce remarquable ouvrage collectif. Au fil d'une lecture éprouvante, ceux qui, en France, avaient pu imaginer que la situation nauséabonde qui s'est peu à peu, depuis la seconde Intifada, installée dans nos villes et dans nos banlieues, constitue une exception, réaliseront avec stupeur et inquiétude que le phénomène a gangrené tout le continent. Jusqu'aux bords de la Baltique en passant par les Balkans ou les territoires des Vikings. Épouvantable ! Partout, souvent sous couvert d'antisionisme, les Juifs sont montrés du doigt, vilipendés, agressés. Partout, un même postulat semble opérer, selon les mots de Georges-Elia Sarfati : « celui de la péjoration ou de la criminalisation du fait juif ».
